Michigan vs Oregon Odds, Pick
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 151.5 -105o / -115u | +120 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 151.5 -105o / -115u | -145 |
We head out west to Eugene, Oregon as the Oregon Ducks will host the Michigan Wolverines. This matchup is primed for points, as both of these offenses have gotten off to terrific starts to begin the year.
The Wolverines offense has not been enough to carry them as of late since they have dropped three of their last four games. The Ducks are coming off back-to-back losses to Santa Clara and Alabama, where their defense allowed 88+ points in both games.
Below, we have Michigan vs Oregon odds and a pick for Saturday.
Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines are loaded with offensive talent, and I really like the makeup of this roster. This could be the most underrated offense in the entire Big Ten.
There are some concerns heading into this matchup, and right away their poor free throw shooting jumped off the page. This is a game where they will need to capitalize from the charity stripe.
As a team, this group is shooting 65% from the free-throw line. Not only will this affect them throughout the rest of the season, but they will have to improve in order to come out of Eugene with a victory.
The Wolverines are shooting 57% from the field, which is the 20th best in the nation. More importantly, they're shooting 38% from beyond the arc which gives them the opportunity to take advantage of the Ducks' mediocre perimeter defense.
What I really like about this matchup is the massive height advantage the Wolverines have. This should give the frontcourt tandem of Tarris Reed and Tray Jackson to have massive games on the inside.
The problem lies on the defensive side of the ball. The Wolverines have been extremely vulnerable in two key areas thus far: rebounding and three-point defense.
They are 238th in opposing offensive rebounding percentage, and their opponents are shooting 38% from three. They will need to clean this up in order to be competitive in this game.
I already spoke about their height advantage, but that's a key reason they're holding their opponents to a 47% FG rate inside of the arc. This is an area they should be able to exploit the Oregon offense.
Guard Dug McDaniel is a walking bucket, so I would expect him to have success against this Ducks defense. The Wolverines should find offensive success, and they've already proven they can keep up the pace in their game against St. John's.
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Oregon Ducks
I really like this Ducks offense, I was able to watch the majority of their matchup against Alabama. What that game showcased was that this offense can keep up with the best of the best at any given moment.
They love to run up-tempo, and they protect the basketball extremely well. I consider that even more impressive considering they are executing at such a high speed.
The Ducks should stay hot from long range considering the Wolverines are 305th in three-point defense. I'd imagine a large amount of shots are going to come from the outside.
There's no doubt they should be able to have success in this matchup, but I think their lack of length could hurt them. The Ducks find themselves in the middle of the pack in terms of scoring inside, so I'm curious to see if they decide to let it fly from three more frequently.
Another major issue is their free throw shooting. For a team that's so talented offensively, I am stunned they're shooting 60% from the charity stripe.
Michigan doesn't foul very often, but if the Ducks find themselves in the bonus they will need to cash in on those opportunities. This group does find themselves at the line quite frequently, so I'm curious to see who wins that battle.
Defensively I have concerns about their size as well as their ability to force turnovers. The Wolverines are prone to turning the ball over a bit, but the issue is the Ducks don't create any of their own.
This could lead to a lot of clean possessions for the Wolverines which could be trouble for the Ducks. I have faith in their offense, but defensively I don't know if it has what it takes to slow down Michigan.
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Michigan vs. Oregon
Betting Pick & Prediction
I think the Ducks will get a lot of love from the public due to the Wolverines recent struggles, but this line opened at Oregon -2.5, which tells me that the Wolverines would be favored on a neutral site and that Vegas thinks they're the better team.
KenPom makes this game Oregon -3, but quite frankly I disagree with that assessment. I know the Wolverines have struggled lately, but I think they are the more sound team between these two.
Their height advantage should play a huge factor on the glass and I think they'll be able to do enough offensively to keep up with this high-tempo Ducks team.
As long as Michigan can avoid getting killed from the outside, I think they'll certainly hang tough in this matchup. I really think Oregon's free throw shooting will end up costing them big time down the stretch.
