Morgan State vs Virginia Odds, Pick
| Morgan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+26.5 -115 | 131.5 -115o / -105u | +1600 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-26.5 -105 | 131.5 -115o / -105u | -10000 |
Welcome back from the brief Christmas intermission! The college basketball season will return full throttle later this week, but there's at least an appetizer on Wednesday.
The Morgan State Bears face off against the Virginia Cavaliers in their final non-conference tilt.
Morgan State Bears
The Bears from Morgan State gave James Madison a serious scare last week, as they led mid-way through the second half. We all know the Dukes wound up winning by double digits, but now Morgan State will vie for another upset bid.
Morgan State played a fairly ridiculous non-conference schedule, featuring games at Arizona, BYU and now Virginia. In 14 games, the Bears collected four wins, with only one coming against a D-I opponent.
Despite guard Wynston Tabbs providing some scoring pop, Morgan State isn't an explosive team. The only issue is Tabbs missed the past three games with an injury, so his status is worth monitoring. Tabbs scored 38 points in the team's lone win over D-I competition — an upset over UMBC.
If Tabbs can't suit up, look for guards Kamron Hobbs and Amahrie Simpkins to shoulder the offensive load.
Hobbs is a ball-handling maven, displaying great quickness and playmaking prowess. He tossed 10+ assists in two of three games and scored 16 points against James Madison. Hobbs will need to step up his production if Morgan State were to compete against one of the nation's stingiest defenses.
Stylistically, look for the Bears to try pushing the pace, which is easier said than done against Virginia. Kevin Broadus' team plays the 41st-quickest tempo in America, a contrast from the style Virginia has played for a decade.
Virginia Cavaliers
The age-old tale of Virginia's struggles continue this season.
Offensive struggles loom once again, as the Cavs rank 142nd in Offensive Efficiency. The team clearly lacks offensive flow, as Virginia scored 56 points against Northeastern and 54 in a convincing loss against Memphis.
Additionally, Virginia's defense plays the same pack-line style as usual. The one difference is that it forces turnovers significantly more than in past seasons. You can likely pin the uptick in turnovers on Ryan Dunn and Reece Beekman's athleticism, leading to tipped passes and turnovers.
One guy who's a more offensive-centric player is sophomore Isaac McKneely. The 6-foot-4 guard is shooting 27-of-54 from deep, an even 50% shooting from distance. He excels in spot-up shooting situations, scoring a blistering 1.55 points per possession on spot-up attempts, according to Synergy.
He's truly turned into one of college basketball's elite perimeter threats.
Plus, the offensive strength of Beekman's game comes from getting to the rim. If the speedy guard puts pressure on the defense, McKneely can find an opening from deep.
Virginia can't come out flat against Morgan State, an opponent the Wahoos should clobber.
Morgan State vs. Virginia
Betting Pick & Prediction
Oh man, taking Morgan State feels a bit strange in this spot — only because who actually thinks Morgan State can compete against Virginia?
The truth of the matter is Virginia's offense might struggle to score more than 75 points, even against an awful defense (the Bears rank 348th in Defensive Efficiency).
I can't see Morgan State scoring more than 55-60 points, but Virginia covering the spread would have the Cavs scoring close to 80 points.
I'm fading an unimpressive offensive team.
Pick: Morgan State +27.5
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