Akron Zips vs Creighton Bluejays Odds
| Akron Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 -110 | 143 -110o / -110u | +575 |
| Creighton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12 -110 | 143 -110o / -110u | -850 |
The NCAA Tournament has a beautiful way of stumbling into fascinating first-round matchups. Power conference giants meet with mid-major darlings, often with a clash of styles that makes for real drama.
This game matches a Creighton Bluejays team fresh off a disappointing performance at the Big East Tournament facing an Akron Zips club that lost five of its final eight regular-season games before surging to a heart-racing win in the MAC Tournament title game.
On the court, this matchup pairs sharpshooting Creighton with the grinding, punishing Akron Zips. Both teams will be intent to control the feel and flow of the game, with the outcome likely decided by who was able to set the tone.
Let's take a closer look at both teams in our Akron vs. Creighton preview and pick.
Akron Zips
The Zips want to lull you into a wrestling match, not a track meet. That fits with the roster John Groce has at his disposal, which is as big and athletic across the frontline as you'll see in a 14-seed. Akron lines up with Ole Miss transfer center Sammy Hunter, rangy forward Ali Ali and the nation's leading rebounder in Enrique Freeman, challenging the size and strength of any opponent's interior players.
Freeman is the headliner, particularly given his rebounding. He's led the MAC in boards per game three straight years, ranking top six in the country in each of those years. He had 30 double-doubles this year, punctuated by an all-time stat line in the MAC Tournament semifinals, when he posted 24 pints, 21 rebounds, and seven blocks. The amount of possessions he's creating or protecting by grabbing those rebounds is monumental to the outcome of a game.
While the Zips can aim to win the paint, Akron lacks the offensive playmaker that can create for himself or others off the dribble. Ali led the team with 2.8 assists per game and is much more focused on his own scoring. The resulting offense is slow and can be plodding at times.
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Creighton Bluejays
All season, Creighton has ridden its game plan, maximizing the talent on its roster. Greg McDermott's Bluejays play a modern brand of offense, highly valuing the 3-pointer and looks at the rim.
Creighton ranked seventh in the country in 3-point rate, taking nearly 30 attempts from long range per game. When the Bluejays do attack inside, they do so to find high-value opportunities. Creighton shot a top-10 percentage on looks at the rim, while ranking 349th in free-throw attempts per game.
Driving Bluejays aren't typically in the paint to challenge a shot blocker; they want to find a layup or a kick out for a triple. With the shooters on the roster, that makes a ton of sense. Five of Creighton's top six rotation players are deadeyes when given space.
On the other end of the floor, the thinking remains consistent. McDermott recognizes the outsized value of the 3-pointer, so his Bluejays prevent opponents from taking shots outside the arc. Only four teams in the nation allowed a lower rate of 3-point attempts.
Once Creighton closes out on your shooters and forces penetration, the Bluejays leave you little choice. They certainly aren't going to foul you. No team allowed a lower free-throw rate or lower percentage of points from the foul line than Creighton. Instead, your options are a mid-range jump shot or challenging Ryan Kalkbrenner at the rim.
Kalkbrenner is the now three-time running Big East Player of the Year. On every ball screen action, he drops into the paint, inviting ball-handlers to either settle for a mid-range jumper or try to score over him.
Creighton's gamble is simple. Take as many mid-range jumpers as you want. The Bluejays outscore those low-value looks with their barrage of 3-pointers. Over the long haul of the regular season, the sample size is large enough for the Creighton game plan to equate to a winning formula. In the hells of a single elimination tournament, it's a riskier proposition, with a cold shooting night opening the door to a lesser opponent.
Akron vs Creighton
Betting Pick & Prediction
If you were eyeing Creighton as an upset alert, this likely isn't a matchup that excites you. The recipe to score on Creighton requires a dynamic guard who can operate in space when Kalkbrenner sags into drop coverage.
Look back at the Bluejays' losses this season and time and again, you'll see that profile. Daniss Jenkins from St. John's was masterful in beating Creighton (27 points, six assists), Colorado State's Isaiah Stevens went for 20 points and seven assists, Marquette's Tyler Kolek and UConn's Tristen Newton found success and Providence's Devin Carter did so twice.
That player isn't really on the Akron roster. It's more likely the Zips would rely on Ali or Freeman as a short roller in that open space, but I'm doubtful that's enough to warrant a knockout punch.
On the other end of the court, maybe there's hope. Creighton is 3-point happy, while Akron allowed the 13th-lowest 3-point percentage in the country this year. How much of that is luck versus challenging shots?
If you buy it being luck, the Zips are more than due for it to swing back and hurt. Akron's last five opponents have hit just 24.3% of their 3-point attempts. Creighton is the worst team to face with regression looming.
If there's a concern, it's Groce's tournament record. His teams are 6-0 ATS in his last six March Madness games, with five of those six opponents failing to hit 65 points. Rather than ignore, let's say he's due for that streak to end, hoping to back the Bluejays at a more reasonable number.
Pick: Lean Creighton -12.5 (Play Creighton -9.5 or Better)
