Santa Barbara vs New Mexico Odds, Pick
| UCSB Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 157.5 -110o / -110u | +650 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 157.5 -110o / -110u | -1100 |
Editor's Note: Jamal Mashburn Jr. (lower body) is out for today's game, according to Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports.
Before the season, the general public may have imagined the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos and the New Mexico Lobos meeting in a battle of unbeaten teams.
Instead, UCSB holds a 4-2 record, and New Mexico took a loss in Moraga to Saint Mary's.
Still, plenty is at stake as two of the most dangerous non-power conference teams meet.
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
On the surface, UC Santa Barbara took two "bad losses" to Portland State and UTEP in the season's first two games.
However, context is needed. UCSB played without its star guard, Ajay Mitchell, who returned two weeks ago and has since ushered his team to four consecutive victories.
Mitchell will have his hands full against the feisty defense of Lobos guard Jaelen House. I think the matchup is favorable for Mitchell, though, as his 6-foot-4 frame towers over House, and his ability to lull the defense to sleep can cause House to get antsy and try forcing the issue.
Since returning, Mitchell has been averaging 22 points, four rebounds and five assists. The Gauchos turned the ball over 17+ times in the season's first three games, but only turned it over 14 times (at the most in a single game) in the last four outings.
The Gauchos' scoring must expand beyond Mitchell, as big man Yohan Traore and sharpshooter Cole Anderson will have ample opportunities to put the ball in the bucket.
Traore is the team's second-leading scorer, averaging over 15 points per contest. He'll look to expand the floor and exploit the less-agile Nelly Junior Joseph on the perimeter.
New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico sits 38th in KenPom and looks the part of an NCAA tournament team early on.
The results are even more impressive considering the Lobos have struggled to stay healthy. Star guards Jamal Mashburn Jr. and House both missed a few early games. House is fully back, but Mashburn remained out in Saturday's rout over New Mexico State, so we'll see if the Lobos turn in a full bill of health.
The main reason for New Mexico's success despite the injury issues is the emergence of guards Tru Washington and Donovan Dent. The latter is averaging 16.4 points and a dazzling 6.9 assists, which ranks eighth nationally.
Once Mashburn returns, Richard Pitino will opt for a three-guard lineup featuring House, Mashburn and Dent. It's a smaller lineup, but it contains elite quickness and playmaking ability, which can expose less-skilled teams.
Many teams who prefer to play faster typically struggle with turnovers. When teams rampantly run up and down the floor, an occasional bad pass or dribbling mistake happens. It rarely happens to the Lobos, though.
They rank 20th in Adjusted Tempo, according to KenPom, and 18th in turnover percentage. Among teams in the top 20 of tempo, New Mexico boasts the best turnover percentage.
Winning the turning battle in this one is the main formula to secure an eighth victory.
New Mexico addressed the starting four spot next to Junior Joseph, adding transfers Mustapha Amzil and Isaac Mushila. Their roles are diminished, though, thanks to the jolt of energy from freshman JT Toppin.
The freshman from Texas has pogo sticks for legs, leading to him averaging 12 points and six rebounds per game while shooting 71% from the floor.
House, Dent, Mashburn and the other guards' ability to get into the lane and attract multiple defenders opens up inside shots for Toppin.
UCSB vs. New Mexico
Betting Pick & Prediction
The slow start from UCSB impacts the number here, but remember, it didn't have Mitchell to start the season.
New Mexico's defense will face a very difficult task against the highly-efficient Gauchos offense.
Pick: UCSB +11.5
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