Each week, I share my favorite circled spots for Saturday's college hoops slate.
As a reminder, I write this article before openers (referenced below) have settled once limits open up, so make sure to follow along in the Action Network App to see what I end up betting since the value in the number holds the most weight.
It's one of those Saturdays where I didn't have as many spots circled as usual. Only four made the final cut — although I'll also close with a few quick thoughts on three other games that caught my eye and will likely make my final card.
Hopefully, things go better than last Saturday's 0-7 performance. Zero. And. Seven. Not my finest performance, but it's been a good bounce-back week, and we're always onto the next day around these parts.
Good luck in whatever you decide to wager on.
YTD: 19-15 (55.9%) +2.86 units
Kentucky +2 vs. Tennessee
1 p.m. ET · CBS
Kentucky catches the Vols fresh off a huge win over No. 1 Alabama. Yes, Tennessee has revenge on its mind from a loss in Knoxville earlier this season, but the Cats also need this game for their tourney resume.
Motivation won't be an issue for either team, but I just think we'll get value with UK in what sets up as a decent matchup.
Reigning National Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe has been a liability at times on both ends of the floor. However, that's not necessarily the case against Tennessee since the Vols essentially never run pick-and-roll and Kentucky can lean on its length and athleticism in isolation on the offensive end.
We'll likely get the home team catching points with a more talented roster in a matchup that can hide Tshiebwe's weaknesses.
Kentucky also excels on the defensive glass and takes care of the ball, which neutralizes a pair of key strengths for Tennessee.
Keep an eye on the injury report leading up to the game since both squads have key players listed as day-to-day, but I'm actually fairly optimistic CJ Fredrick and/or Sahvir Wheeler will suit up for the Wildcats.
Queens +8.5 at Kennesaw State
2 p.m. ET · ESPN+
What a turnaround head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim has orchestrated at Kennesaw State. After finishing 1-28 in his first season in 2020, the Owls now sit all alone atop the ASUN standings after upsetting Liberty on Thursday night.
This is a very experienced group that has played together for a few seasons, but it has never experienced success like this before. Following up arguably the biggest win in program history just two days later may prove difficult in a classic letdown spot.
Meanwhile, Queens finds itself in a hotly-contested battle for one of the last remaining spots in the ASUN tournament since only 10 of the 14 teams qualify. After three straight losses, the Royals should come in extra focused looking to avenge a loss at home from earlier in the season.
If you aren't familiar with the Royals, they have an excellent backcourt led by Kenny Dye and AJ McKee. That duo can keep them in almost every league game. Plus, all nine conference losses have come by single digits.
The Queens defense is horrendous, especially in transition. That's a concern against the Owls, although their press offense hasn't been clicking on all cylinders.
Lastly, Kennesaw State is a poor free-throw shooting team (318th nationally), which may come into play late. That said, this is all about the potential letdown spot, assuming we get the right number with the road underdog.
Villanova +5 at Providence
4:30 p.m. ET · FOX
The Friars find themselves in a classic sandwich spot on Saturday afternoon. After pulling off a wild win over Creighton in double overtime on Tuesday, they will host Villanova before facing UConn.
Winners of three straight, Villanova is playing its best basketball of the season. It's no coincidence that coincides with the return of Justin Moore from injury. Moore brings so much to the table for Villanova on both ends of the floor. He adds another facilitator on offense and is one of the better on-ball defenders in the league.
Moore made his season debut in the first meeting against Providence in Philly. The Wildcats came up just short in a game that came down to the final minute, but Moore clearly still had plenty of rust.
With six games now under his belt, it's safe to assume he's fully back, especially since he had his best game of the season in Villanova's last game.
Missouri -1 vs. Texas A&M
6 p.m. ET · ESPN2
This is my favorite buy-low/sell-high spot on the board.
Missouri comes home after suffering a 33-point beatdown at Auburn, while Texas A&M staged a late comeback to beat Arkansas for its fourth straight victory.
Missouri also has revenge on its mind from an earlier season loss in College Station. The Tigers lost by 18, but that was a misleading final in a game I graded as a four-point A&M victory.
Missouri simply couldn't hit a 3 (7-of-31), while the Aggies — a much worse outside shooting team — drained 10-of-23 from deep. The Tigers have plenty of firepower from the outside and will certainly get plenty of looks once again from beyond the arc against an A&M squad that allows the 15th-highest 3PA rate in the country.
The Tigers also don't turn it over at a high frequency, which is important against A&M's pressure, which they handled well in the first meeting. Meanwhile, they forced the Aggies into plenty of turnovers on the other end, which should get their transition game going.
I'm more than happy to back the Tigers in this spot at home, where they've played much better all season in front of rejuvenated crowds in Columbia.
I also believe this marks the peak of the market on a Texas A&M team that has benefited from the easiest conference slate of any SEC team to date. Lastly, I didn't even mention the potential lookahead for the Aggies, who have Tennessee at home on deck.
The Aggies will undoubtedly dominate the offensive glass, but expect the 3-point variance to go Missouri's way in a great bounce-back home spot.
Other Betting Notes
- It looks like an ideal spot to buy low on TCU, assuming star guard Mike Miles Jr. returns to the lineup after getting cleared on Friday. The future pro's presence is just massive for the Horned Frogs. TCU ranked in the top 15 nationally in overall efficiency prior to Miles' injury, per BartTorvik. Since losing Miles, it's 92nd. Miles can spearhead TCU's elite transition offense against an Oklahoma State defense that has struggled in that department (23rd percentile, per Synergy). TCU is also looking for revenge against a Cowboys team it almost staged a miraculous comeback against in Stillwater without Miles.
- We might get some value on a big number with DePaul on the road against a Xavier team it already upset earlier this year. The Musketeers have lost two straight but have major depth issues — assuming Zach Freemantle still remains out on Saturday. That's not ideal after going essentially only six deep in a thriller at Marquette on Wednesday. DePaul did go to double overtime on Tuesday but has one extra day of rest and preparation Plus, it boasts more depth, especially since Jalen Terry returned from injury and big man Nick Ongenda made his season debut against St. John's earlier this week.
- Vanderbilt is arguably playing the best basketball of any SEC team at this very moment. The offense is clicking on all cylinders since big man Liam Robbins came back. Robbins, a matchup nightmare for most opponents, has dropped 56 combined points in his past two games. Meanwhile, I still don't fully trust Auburn's erratic guards on the road. And who knows? If Vandy wins out and makes noise in the SEC Tournament, it could find itself on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
