Nebraska vs. Purdue Odds
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -105 | 133.5 -115o / -105u | +860 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -115 | 133.5 -115o / -105u | -1600 |
The Purdue Boilermakers host the Nebraska Cornhuskers after Fred Hoiberg's squad lost to Illinois in a rout Tuesday night.
Purdue has dropped just one game at home this season — a 65-64 loss to Rutgers on Jan. 2. That should not be the case in this game.
Nebraska will be without Juwan Gary, which will ding its depth. But the Cornhuskers have done one thing well all season: play to their pace. The Huskers enter 14-3 to the under, while Purdue is 10-6.
Purdue's Zach Edey and the wings may be able to put up some points, but there will be fewer possessions in this game than many may expect. Derrick Walker, Wilhelm Breidenbach and Blaise Keita will have to do their best, but they should be able to somewhat limit the Boilermakers' inside game.
This game should go under the total.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nebraska ranks 289th nationally in adjusted tempo. It does so by utilizing 17.7 seconds per possession offensively and 18 seconds per possession on defense. The Huskers earned that 14-3 mark on unders, so they force opponents to slow down to their pace.
They also tout a top-50 adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and hold opponents to an eFG% of 48.6%.
However, they're best at not fouling opponents, which will come in handy in this game. Nebraska ranks third in free-throw attempt percentage allowed in the NCAA. Purdue ranks 36th in this area on offense, and the Boilermakers get 21.6% of their points from the strike.
Yes, the Cornhuskers lose a bit on defense with Gary out, but they should limit how often the Boilermakers draw contact on shots.
Nebraska defends the arc moderately well. Opponents are shooting 32.1% on 3s, but the Boilermakers are brutal from outside as a unit. They're shooting just 32.2% from deep to rank 249th in the NCAA. The Cornhuskers should keep them in check beyond the arc.
Purdue Boilermakers
Now, Purdue’s offense is no joke, and much of that has to do with Edey.
The Boilers are shooting a collective 55.5% on 2-pointers and rank 101st in 3-point attempt percentage, so they distribute where they manufacture points from well.
Although it may not foul much, Nebraska is permitting opponents to hit 49% of 2-pointers. Edey and Co. will take advantage.
That said, the Boilermakers slow the pace in their games as well. They rank even slower at 322nd in adjusted tempo, per KenPom, forcing opponents to use up 18 seconds per possession. On offense, Purdue takes up 18.9 seconds per possession.
Nebraska doesn't have much of an offense to lean on, ranking 179th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and scoring most its points off of 2-pointers. In fact, nearly 58% of the Huskers' points this season have come on 2s, and they rank just 239th in 3-point attempt percentage because they hit less than 29.5% from outside.
Purdue is holding opponents to 45.8% on 2s and 29.4% on 3s. Either way, this Nebraska offense is doomed.
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Photo by CBB ANALYTICS
Finally, Purdue ranks first in free-throw attempt percentage on defense. This is yet another area where the Cornhuskers won't be able to score.
Nebraska vs. Purdue Betting Pick
This game should be mostly played in the half-court set. Both teams slow the game down, and Purdue’s defense is far stronger than it has been in the past.
Nebraska rarely fouls and has a little defensive artillery it can throw Edey’s way. As a last resort, the Cornhuskers will control how few possessions fans see in this game.
Given that Purdue has a similar strategy this year, this game should go under.
The market has not caught up to how slowly both of these teams play. Purdue should win handily, but the under should hit. Take it from 131.5, and play it to 129.
Pick: Under 131.5 (Play to 129) |
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