Nevada vs. San Diego State Odds
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 137.5 -110o / -110u | +330 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 137.5 -110o / -110u | -430 |
Now that Utah State and New Mexico have lost in league play, just two unbeaten teams remain in the Mountain West Conference, and they'll face off against one another on Tuesday night in San Diego.
Nevada was picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the league, but the Wolf Pack are 4-0 and destroyed San Jose State on Saturday by 27 points.
Much of the Mountain West has had a difficult time winning at Viejas Arena though, and that's the task for Steve Alford's squad when it faces the also unbeaten Aztecs.
San Diego State squeaked by a short-handed Wyoming squad on Saturday in Laramie, and Brian Dutcher's team continues to have issues on the defensive end.
San Diego State is typically known for its defense, especially on the inside with Nathan Mensah. It's struggled to defend the interior this year, but Nevada is actually a perimeter-oriented offense.
This game represents an excellent sell-high opportunity on Nevada after the Wolf Pack's stellar start and recent winning run.
Here's a look at the Nevada vs. San Diego State odds, including a pick and prediction for the matchup.
Nevada Wolf Pack
Based on the Synergy data for the Wolf Pack, they run their offense and get shots from three primary offensive methods: ball screens, cuts and post-ups.
Going up against Mensah on the interior will make it extremely difficult for Nevada to run any kind of post game through Will Baker. He and Nick Davidson have taken advantage of some lightweight and undersized front courts in the last two games against Colorado State and San Jose State.
The Aztecs will pose a much stiffer challenge on the interior and with their ball pressure. The Aztecs rank in the 93rd percentile in post-up defense nationally and are 35th in turnovers forced rate.
While the Rams and Spartans presented almost no turnover threat or ball pressure in the backcourt, the Aztecs will test just how good Nevada is at protecting the ball.
The Wolf Pack are 34rd in KenPom in turnover rate offensively themselves, but haven't faced a single league opponent that forces turnovers yet.
Also, they did turn it over 19 times against Tulane — a team who is better at forcing the issue — earlier this year.
There are also clear signs that we've reached the top of the market on Nevada, and now is a good time to look to sell it.
The same could have been true going into Saturday, but the Wolf Pack were just one-point road favorites at SJSU.
After winning that game by 27 points, they've taken a huge leap in every publicly available advanced metric site. The last two wins and covers felt more like the Spartans and Rams being excellent matchups for this offense than Nevada being way better than anyone thought preseason.
San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs' defense remains a mystery this season after a very shorthanded Wyoming tallied 1.19 points per possession against the unit. Granted, the Aztecs did have major travel issues that disrupted their pregame process and overnight sleep schedules.
But San Diego State isn't nearly as dominant guarding ball screens, it's allowing a much higher percentage on 2-point field goals, and the defensive efficiency numbers have slipped a bit compared to last season.
With that comes major improvements in the offense, though.
The Aztecs are getting in transition more, there's more offense outside of Matt Bradley isolations, and this group is giving them real tournament upside come March.
Bradley is going to have the ball in his hands a lot for this offense, and the Aztecs are going to run a ton of pick-and-roll, isolation and dribble handoffs.
If you can't guard one-on-one or stop ball screens, you'll have major problems stopping San Diego State this season.
Because of the mediocre athleticism of their bigs, the Wolf Pack are bad at rebounding and below average guarding ball screens. The Wolf Pack are in the 26th percentile nationally in pick-and-roll defense.
Bradley and this offense should have no issues getting margin.
Nevada vs. San Diego State Betting Pick
The market didn't totally overreact to the Wolf Pack's blow out win or 4-0 start to the conference slate, given that this number still remains at 9.5. But the Aztecs are the considerably better team, and regression looms for a Nevada offense that has faced little resistance in the last month.
Remember that this is still the same Nevada team that lost by double digits to Oregon and Loyola Marymount.
The Wolf Pack's half-court offense will be too reliant on Jarod Lucas' shot-making to try to bail them out late in the shot clock.
The Aztecs will win going away.
Laying more than 10 is too steep, but at 10 or cheaper the Aztecs are the side to back on Tuesday night in California.
Pick: San Diego State -9.5 (Up to -10) |
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