Northwestern vs UConn Betting Guide
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 136 -110o / -110u | +650 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 136 -110o / -110u | -1000 |
The Connecticut Huskies stand as the strongest reigning champions since Florida repeated in the mid-2000s
That’s not to say there weren’t other strong teams with a chance to repeat. In fact, in the last 10 years, four teams with the title target on their back earned one of the tournament’s top eight seeds.
For all four of those teams, their story ended quickly.
The Huskies look to avoid that dreaded fate, with the plucky Northwestern Wildcats standing in the way of Connecticut’s path to regional games up the road in Boston.
Do the Wildcats have a chance to upend the champs?
Northwestern Wildcats
Year after year, scoring guards become the story-makers in March. If that’s the case again this year, Boo Buie is ready for his close-up.
The All-Big Ten performer shot 44% from deep on more than 200 attempts this season, while also creating for his teammates and drawing contact in the paint.
He does everything for the Northwestern offense, though he can thank some of his hot-shooting teammates for the amount of space he has to operate.
Brooks Barnhizer, Ty Berry (now out for the season), and Ryan Langborg each hoisted over 100 3s this season and the trio collectively hit better than 40%.
In the first round win over Florida Atlantic, it was Langborg playing hero, just as he did last March as a Princeton Tiger as part of that program’s run to the Sweet 16.
Though it has shooters, Northwestern is often starved for a second creator. When teams seal off Buie — especially in crunch time — there’s a vacuum for that next ball-handler to make something happen.
On the other end of the floor, Northwestern’s biggest flaw has been fouling too often, posting the 314th-ranked free-throw rate. Luckily for Chris Collins and company, that hasn't been a major factor for UConn this season, one of the rare areas the Huskies haven’t dominated.
Connecticut Huskies
If you allowed yourself to dream about UConn being the next top seed to fall victim to a first round miracle, the dream didn’t last long.
Halfway through the first half of the Huskies' opening-round victory over Stetson, Connecticut led 26-6. By halftime, that lead was stretched out to 52-19.
That win was emblematic of UConn’s success this season, built upon a balance throughout the lineup that's hard for even elite teams to answer, let alone those at a massive talent deficiency.
Sell out to stop big man Donovan Clingan, and shooters are ready to launch over your head. Attack those shooters and playmakers, and Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer will make you pay with a move off the bounce.
The Huskies can beat you in transition or in the half-court. They're unselfish and hard working.
Where is UConn vulnerable? Given that this team has lost just one game since Christmas, it’s hard to pin down exactly how to beat Danny Hurley’s juggernaut.
My assertion has always been that the team to beat UConn will need a variety of ball-handlers who can attack the Huskies’ guards in space — especially Spencer — and force the issue offensively with some dribble penetration.
That may lead to the other hope, forcing Hurley to dip beyond the seven players he trusts by inducing some foul trouble.
If those small vulnerabilities are your team’s greatest issues, your team is in good shape in March.
Northwestern vs. UConn
Betting Pick & Prediction
UConn remains the best team in this tournament, though as countless examples prior have proven, that guarantees the Huskies nothing.
There’s a few possible ways UConn gets toppled prior to the Final Four: a hellish shooting night — answered by a hot streak from its opponent — would be the classic example.
The second possibility would be a team with a distinct identity throwing UConn a curveball — something like an unsolvable zone, relentless pressure or some other quirk.
The last, as I’ve had my eye on for a while, is a team that can punish Spencer defensively, while catching a few other breaks.
Northwestern’s only shot at any of those is option No. 1: outshooting the Huskies. It’s possible that the Wildcats — who rank seventh in the country in 3-point percentage — have a game like they did at Purdue, in which they dragged the Boilermakers to overtime by hitting 14 3s.
If Northwestern can at least shoot it well, the Wildcats can avoid a blowout, especially by slowing the tempo. Northwestern played at the slowest pace in the Big Ten this season, and it would be wise to be methodical on Sunday.
A low possession game with a high number of 3-point attempts adds some variance. UConn played seven games of 62 or fewer possessions this year, going just 4-3 in those games. The Huskies are 28-0 in games with 63 or more possessions.
With the models at KenPom and Bart Torvik measuring this game as a 10- and 9-point game, respectively, I see a little value in backing the Wildcats to keep things at arm’s reach.
