Ohio vs Florida Odds
| Ohio Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -114 | 145.5 -112o / -110u | +570 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -106 | 145.5 -112o / -110u | -850 |
Ohio and Florida will meet on Wednesday night in an interesting non-conference matchup that will take place in Tampa, FL at Amalie Arena.
The Gators have had a week to think about the 21-point loss they suffered in Gainesville at the hands of undefeated, red-hot Connecticut.
Meanwhile, the Bobcats had their biggest win of the season on Sunday, upsetting Youngstown State, 81-79, on the road.
This will be an intriguing matchup down-low between two stellar senior centers.
For the Gators, Colin Castleton is averaging 16.1 points (team-high) to go with 7.5 boards per contest.
On the Ohio side, Dwight Wilson III has had similar numbers, posting 12.5 points (team-high) to go with 10 rebounds a game.
Both of these teams are coming off very different results, but both will look to win the battle in the post to find success on Wednesday night.
Ohio Bobcats
Head coach Jeff Boals has done a wonderful job in his fourth year as he attempts to replace a significant part of a team that finished 25-10 a year ago.
The Bobcats rank 76th in the nation in D-I experience while having only 27.5% minutes continuity (275th nationally).
This transition resulted in Ohio losing three out of its first four games to start the season, including a four-point overtime loss to Hunter Dickinson and the Michigan Wolverines.
This game against Michigan was a statement game for Wilson, who has emerged as the go-to guy for the Bobcats.
Ohio uses Wilson on over 25.2% of its possessions as a result of his stellar play on both ends of the floor.
This versatility is shown in the Bobcats' offensive/defensive rebounding percentage, which are both inside the top-50 nationally.
Dwight Wilson III (@highlightreel_) gets the GAME WINNING BUZZER BEATING LAYUP Just Baaaaaaaarely rolls in for Ohio to beat Youngstown State in an unpredictable and crazy affair 81-79
pic.twitter.com/0DeFpaxD6z— NCAA Buzzer Beaters & Game Winners (@NCAABuzzerBters) December 11, 2022
Wilson's play will be especially important in neutralizing Castleton.
Similar to Wilson, the Gators use Castleton on 30.4% of possessions (42nd among D-I players). Being able to neutralize Castleton will go a long way in stopping a Florida offense that scores 52.9% of its points inside the 3-point line.
The biggest question-mark for Ohio this season has been on the defensive end. The Bobcats rank 247th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (105.6).
This ranking is largely a result of the Bobcats' inability to defend the 3-point line. They rank 258th nationally in 3P% allowed at 36%. As a result, opponents typically score 34.4% of their points from beyond the arc against the Bobcats.
Fortunately for Ohio, Florida's offense has not shown an ability to beat teams from deep this season.
So far this season, Florida has scored just 27.6% of its total points from beyond the arc. This is a direct result of the fact that Florida ranks 305th nationally in 3-point attempts in relation to total field-goal attempts.
Wilson's ability to clog the lane will be a bigger problem for Florida than it anticipates, given its aversion for the 3-point shot.
Florida Gators
Todd Golden's first year at the helm for the Gators has been rather foreseeable to this point in the season.
Florida has lost all four of its games against teams inside the top 50 while winning all six against teams well outside the top 100.
Wednesday's matchup with Ohio is a clear bounce-back spot for a team that was exposed in multiple facets by UConn.
Much of the success the Gators have had this season has started on the defensive end.
Florida ranks 56th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency due in large part to the rim protection of Castleton.
Castleton ranks 24th nationally in block percentage (9.7%), which has vaulted Florida to being ranked 18th nationally as a team in block percentage.
Huge block from Florida with a minute left
Colin Castleton was FIRED UP 🗣 pic.twitter.com/H4xtwgflDQ
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) March 19, 2021
This rim protection has directly resulted in the Gators being ranked just outside the top-50 in 2P% defense.
Unfortunately, this stellar rim protection will not take away the strength of Ohio on offense.
The Bobcats have excelled beyond the 3-point line this season, shooting 36% from beyond the arc. That allows them to score 36.6% of their total points from distance (59th nationally).
Florida will need to show an ability to stretch the floor on defense to have success against Ohio.
Ohio vs. Florida Betting Pick
It's clear that Florida has the talent and height advantage in this matchup. The Gators rank 57th in average height (78") compared to 311th for Ohio (76.3").
Even given this advantage, I believe that Ohio will find ways to keep this one close in a unique neutral-site environment.
Look for Ohio to have the shooting ability to expose Florida's perimeter defense, thus stretching the floor for its talented senior Wilson.
A victory will be hard to find in Tampa for Ohio, but I do believe it will test Florida in multiple facets.
Pick: Ohio +12 (Play to +10) |
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