Oklahoma vs Cincinnati Odds, Pick
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
The Cincinnati Bearcats and Oklahoma Sooners are two of the most surprising teams in the country. Both were projected as possible NCAA Tournament teams if things broke right, and both now appear as prominent NCAA Tournament teams. Oklahoma enters at 14-3, while Cincinnati is 13-4.
Here's NCAAB odds and a pick for Oklahoma vs. Cincinnati.
Oklahoma Sooners
The Big 12 is a complete gauntlet. There are challenging games in conference play, so winning road games is just a bonus. Oklahoma is ranked top-five nationally and is a four-point road underdog against Cincinnati. That line shows respect for the Bearcats while speaking to the Big 12's depth.
Oklahoma's identity is on the defensive end, ranking in the top 20 in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. That's no surprise for Coach Porter Moser, who built the identity of the highly successful Loyola Chicago teams of the mid-2010's in a smaller fashion. The Sooners' defense is particularly effective at defending the 3-point arc, limiting opponents to shooting 27.8% from 3. That's one of the best marks in college basketball.
Meanwhile, on offense, Oklahoma runs through skilled point guard Javian McCollum. The 6-foot-2 guard from Siena excels in the pick-and-roll game and can really fill up the scoring column. He's scored 15+ points in three of four games. Turnovers have caused problems for McCollum lately, losing the ball 16 total times in the past three games.
McCollum's turnovers outline a larger issues which halts the Sooners offense. Turnovers plague the offense, turning the ball over 18.9% of the time, ranking 260th in college hoops. At times, McCollum is too fast for his own good, and like an exotic sports car, it can lose control with the smallest of maneuvers.
Additionally, Oklahoma isn't a particularly strong perimeter shooting team. McCollum is the lone Sooner' shooting above 36% from deep with more than 30 attempts (excluding Otega Oweh's 25 shots.) Oweh is a downhill driver, but his shooting deserves some level of respect. Le'Tre Darthard (31%) and Milos Uzan (27%) are the two highest volume shooters (besides McCollum.) Oklahoma's offense will make significant strides if Uzan and Darthard start shooting the ball better from downtown.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati is looking to defend home court again following an exhilarating win over the Horned Frogs on Tuesday.
So far, Cincinnati is a feen for playing close games — losing by three against BYU, beating TCU by four in an overtime thriller, and losing to Texas by one. I feel bad for Cincinnati fans' well-being.
Cincinnati and Oklahoma play similar styles — deploying stout defenses to win games. Cincinnati is 19th nationally in defensive efficiency, led by the masterful defense from big man Aziz Bandaogo. The 7-footer from Utah Valley completely flipped the Bearcats' season with elite rim protection and shot-blocking ability once the NCAA allowed multi-time transfers to play instantly.
Wes Miller's team boasts an 11% block percentage (76th nationally.) Bandaogo plays a key role in the shot-blocking surge. Another area Bandaogo helps is on the glass, ranking fourth in defensive rebounding percentage and 14th in offensive rebounding percentage.
While Cincinnati is one of the best defensive teams in America, the offense lags.
The Bearcats want to get inside and attack the rim rather than shoot it from deep — only attempting threes on 34% of field goals. The team's top three scorers, Day Day Thomas, Viktor Lahkin and Dan Skillings, all relentlessly attack the rim and put pressure on man-to-man defenses.
Thomas and Skillings are two highly interesting players for many different reasons. Thomas gets into the lane and uses his quickness to finish or dish out to shooters like Simas Lukosias and CJ Fredrick. On the other hand, Skillings' lengthy 6-foot-6, 215-pound frame is a difficult matchup for most opposing wings.
Although Cincinnati doesn't have a bonafide star, the sum of the parts is pretty strong. Freshman Jizzle James is the one player with true star potential, though. James officially hit the proverbial freshman wall, scoring four or fewer points in four of five games. He could make a huge difference for the Bearcats perimeter shooting once the wall closes off from James a bit. Keep an eye on him in this one.
Oklahoma vs. Cincinnati
Betting Pick & Prediction
I think Oklahoma is outplaying its talent level to a certain extent. I don't see the Sooners as a legitimate top-15 team in America, mirroring the metrics thoughts. Elite defensive teams have a decent floor, but Cincy matches Oklahoma's style and does it even better.
Take the home Bearcats, who beat TCU by four points the other day.
