Oklahoma State vs Baylor Odds
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
There are no easy wins in the Big 12 and Oklahoma State's schedule thus far is proof of that. The Cowboys are 1-3 in Big 12 play (9-7 overall), but all three of those losses came to teams currently ranked in the top 11 nationally — Kansas, Texas and Kansas State. It will not get any easier for Oklahoma State as it heads to Waco to battle the Baylor Bears on Saturday evening.
Baylor got through its non-conference schedule at 10-2. However, it lost its first three conference games, including a one-point game to TCU and a two-point overtime contest to Kansas State. Baylor picked up its first Big 12 win on Wednesday with a 83-78 victory over West Virginia. The Bears will look to build on that win against Oklahoma State.
Baylor has won 12 of the past 15 meetings in this series. However, Oklahoma State handed Baylor one of its only two losses at home last season. Baylor is a 6-point favorite for this matchup.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Since head coach Mike Boynton has been in Stillwater, Oklahoma State has been one of the top defensive teams in the country and this season has been no different. After ranking fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency last season, Oklahoma State is seventh this season. It ranks 20th in three-point percentage defense and third in field goal percentage defense.
It is particularly difficult to score inside against Oklahoma State as the Cowboys rank fifth in two-point percentage defense and third in blocks percentage. Junior center Moussa Cisse averages 2.7 blocks while senior forward Kalib Boone is averaging 1.3 per game. The Cowboys blocked 12 shots last Saturday against Texas.
However, for as good as Oklahoma State is defensively, it does not really stand out on offense. The Cowboys rank 122nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 276th in offensive rating.
Junior guard Bryce Thompson is averaging 11.6 points and shooting a team-leading 38.5% from three. Senior guard Avery Anderson is averaging 10.4 points and leads the team with three assists per game.
Cisse, at 8.1 points and 9.9 rebounds, is a bucket away averaging a double-double. He has five double-doubles this season and ranks second in the conference behind Kansas' Jalen Wilson. He missed the Cowboys' past two games with an ankle injury and is questionable for Saturday.
Oklahoma State does not shoot the three ball well, just 32.7%, and ranks 230rd nationally. It also turns the ball over at a high clip. The Cowboys are 335th in turnover percentage. They average 13.3 assists and 15.1 turnovers. That ratio will not get it done, particularly on the road.
Baylor Bears
Baylor will counter Oklahoma State with one of the top offenses in the country. Baylor is eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency and averages 81 points per game. Its guard trio of Keyonte George, Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer leads the way.
George scores 17.8 points per game and is second nationally among freshmen in scoring. He is averaging 23.6 points per game over his past five games, including a season-high 32 in the win over West Virginia.
Flagler is averaging 16.9 points and leads the team with 5.1 assists per game. He also has been deadly behind the arc, shooting 47.8% from three. Cryer is averaging 13.8 points and shooting 56.8% on two-point attempts.
Forward Jalen Bridges is averaging 8.9 points and 5.2 rebounds per game and coming off his third career double-double (10 points, 11 rebounds). He's part of the reason Baylor ranks eighth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.
Defensively, Baylor has struggled, ranking 89th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 169th in effective field goal percentage defense. Its defense has been the main culprit behind its 1-3 conference start. Baylor has allowed 75 points or more in all four conference games.
Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Betting Pick
Baylor's five losses have come to teams ranked in the Top 25. The Bears have allowed 88.8 points per game in those losses.
Oklahoma State will pose a stiff challenge with its defense, but its offense will struggle to keep up and has yet to score to score 70 points in conference play. If Oklahoma State is without Cisse again, it will struggle to attack Baylor inside. Additionally, given Oklahoma State's struggles protecting the ball, Baylor is not a great matchup. Baylor forces just about eight steals per game.
Forcing turnovers will allow Baylor to get out and run and get easy buckets before Oklahoma State can set its defense. Baylor already plays at an above-average tempo as is.
I expect Baylor to build off its win at West Virginia and will back the Bears to win by five (or more) at home.
