Creighton vs Princeton Odds
| Creighton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 141 -110o / -110u | +425 |
| Princeton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 141 -110o / -110u | -550 |
Just like everybody predicted, we have the Princeton Tigers taking on the Creighton Bluejays in the Sweet 16 in Louisville, Kentucky.
It will be interesting to see if the Tigers can continue their remarkable Cinderella run after two early-round upsets, but they have an excellent team in their way.
Some are saying the Bluejays played the best basketball out of all of the remaining teams in the field throughout the first two rounds. I would be pretty stunned to see the Jays come out with a flat effort here.
This number opened pretty large, and it has even begun to tick down a bit, with some Tigers money pouring in.
Let's see if we can uncover the correct betting side in this breakdown.
Creighton Bluejays
If you've read my previous Jays breakdown, you already know how high I am on this team.
During the opening weekend of this tournament, the world got to see how elite this team can be when it has everything clicking on both sides of the floor.
In this matchup, I think this is a great spot for the Jays to absolutely dominate. I spoke about their terrific defense already, but they should be able to shut down the scoring on the inside.
That is the one area the Tigers have had the most success this season, and we saw flashes of this in the Arizona game. Ryan Kalkbrenner should be able to feast all night on both the offensive and defensive side of the floor.
This Creighton offense is humming right now, and it finds itself inside the top 40 in effective field goal percentage, 2-point percentage, free-throw percentage and Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Jays also have a significant height advantage over the Tigers, which will play huge dividends.
The guard trio of Andrew Nembhard, Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander will be too much for the Tigers' backcourt to handle, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another offensive explosion from the Jays.
Princeton Tigers
Regardless of how the game goes on Friday evening, the Tigers have to be proud of how far they've made it thus far. They entered the Ivy League Championship as an underdog, but that didn't stop them from punching a ticket into the dance.
They've proceeded to knock off two terrific offensive teams in Arizona and Missouri along the way.
However, I do have a lot of concerns about this Tigers team, especially in this matchup. Their offense was absolutely electric against Missouri, but according to the underlying metrics, they have some serious regression looming.
First off, the Tigers, as a whole, struggle in a few offensive areas. They're currently 201st in 3PT%, 199th in FT% and 258th in offensive block%, which illustrates that they're not getting a lot of clean shot attempts up.
This is not a great matchup with a Bluejays team that is entering this matchup with a top-15 ranking in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
On the defensive side of the floor, the Tigers do a decent job of crashing the glass and limiting second chances.
Their overall defense is pretty decent, but the issue is a lot of these metrics can be misleading since the level of competition they had on their schedule isn't nearly as superior to the teams they're currently playing.
The Tigers don't force a lot of turnovers and don't block many shots either, so they'll have to make every offensive possession count.
This is an inexperienced group, so it remains to be seen if the spotlight will be too much to overcome.
Creighton vs Princeton Betting Pick
It's been a fun ride for the Tigers, but their magical run will end on Friday night.
I think this is a smash spot for the Jays, and barring any miracles, I think they will cruise to a victory here.
I actually think the market is doing us a favor by having this spread so low. If this was a regular season matchup, I think the Jays would be favored by 12-14 points.
KenPom doesn't show any value on this spread, but due to all of the factors I mentioned above, I think the Tigers are going to have their hands full all night long.
It's not too surprising the public is all over the darling Tigers, but I've already seen a boatload of sharp money come across the counter on the Jays.
This only further validates my pick, and I will gladly swallow the points here.
Pick: Creighton -9.5 (Play to -10.5) |
