Purdue vs. Ohio State Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-110 | -110o / -110u | +106 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-110 | -110o / -110u | -128 |
The No. 1 team in the country heads to Columbus as Ohio State welcomes Purdue.
The Boilermakers fell to Rutgers at home on Monday, giving Purdue its first loss of the season. Purdue was 13-0 with blowout wins over Duke and Gonzaga prior. Ohio State, meanwhile, took down Northwestern on the road and improved to 10-3.
Can Ohio State defend its home floor Thursday night, or will 7-foot-4 Zach Edey prove too much for the Buckeyes interior? Let's look at the odds and make a betting prediction.
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue will no longer be No. 1 after faltering against Rutgers, but that doesn't take away from the fact that this Boilermakers team has been great in the opening two months and has taken down Marquette, Gonzaga and Duke with relative ease.
Success on the offensive end starts with Edey, who is 7-foot-4. He is used on 30.7% of possessions while on the floor, draws fouls at a top-10 rate and is a walking double-double.
He puts up video game-esque numbers with 21.7 points, 13.4 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game. He's also second among all Division I players in offensive rebounding rate.
It's really hard to limit Edey because of his size. Teams often try and double team the center and force him to pass out of the paint.
Purdue is 20th in turnover rate, meaning it rarely makes mistakes. But the Boilermakers weakness comes from the rotational players surrounding Edey. Purdue is 302nd in three-point offense and is outside the top 100 in eFG%.
Only two players average double figures — Edey and Fletcher Loyer — and the latter struggles with efficiency. Braden Smith has been a great complimentary player — 41.7% from three, 8.9 points per game — but he's used on less than 20% of possessions.
There's a lot left on the table for Purdue's offense. The Boilermakers work at a slow, methodical pace, but efficiency has rarely been there.
Defensively, Matt Painter has done a tremendous job. The Boilermakers don't force turnovers, but they rarely foul — second in FTA/FGA — and are 22nd in 3-point defense.
Purdue prefers a slower-paced game out of the halfcourt. That's where its defense operates best. The Boilermakers don't overextend and often force contested shots.
Despite its inexperience — 288th in the country — Purdue has shown its ability to withstand difficult conditions. The Boilermakers beat both Gonzaga and Duke on a neutral floor and took down Nebraska in a Big Ten road game.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Reconstructing his roster nearly from scratch, Chris Holtmann has turned Ohio State into a contender in the Big Ten.
The Buckeyes rank 350th in minutes continuity, yet sit inside the top 75 in Division I experience. Much of that has come from the additions of senior transfers Sean McNeil, Isaac Likekele and Tanner Holden. Justice Sueing has also returned after suffering a season-ending injury just two games into last year.
The end result has been a dominant offense that ranks No. 2 in adjusted efficiency, per Kenpom. Ohio State has the perfect mixture of sharpshooters and physicality inside. Both Brice Sensabaugh and Bruce Thornton hit threes at a 45.9% or better clip, and Sean McNeil remains in the high 30s.
This is a hard-nosed offense that does not turn the ball over and is extremely aggressive on the glass. The Buckeyes are ninth in offensive rebounding rate and 35th in 2-point offense. Zed Key's junior season breakout has been key toward OSU's non-conference success. He averaged 13.4 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game. He's also shooting 70.6% on 2-point attempts.
The Buckeyes boast a well-rounded offense with four players averaging in double figures, and McNeil is right behind them at 9.9 per game. Ohio State has been held under 70 points just twice this season.
Defensively, Ohio State's length causes plenty of disruption on the perimeter. The Buckeyes rank 10th in 3-point defense with just one rotational player under 6-foot-4.
This isn't a defense that's aggressively forcing turnovers — they're 292nd in TO rate — but they often force contested and difficult shots. The Buckeyes rank 24th in eFG% and 43rd in FTA/FGA, meaning they're disciplined, too.
Holtmann's biggest issue is his size in the frontcourt. Key often mans the center position at 6-foot-8, and Ohio State has freshman Felix Okpara backing him up at 6-foot-11. The duo are efficient rebounders and are deterrents around the rim, but the lack of size could be an issue against Edey.
Purdue vs. Ohio State Betting Pick
Purdue is coming off an upset loss against Rutgers, but I'm not so sure it'll bounce back against an experienced and physical team like Ohio State.
The Buckeyes won't have an answer for Edey. He's got eight inches on Key and will be double teamed on nearly every feed into the post. But Ohio State's defense has proven disruptive and its length should cause issues for Purdue's perimeter offense.
The Boilermakers will be forced into difficult shots from three and they're not a great shooting team to begin with. Tack on the fact they're entering a raucous road environment, and all signs point toward another day of struggles.
Meanwhile, I think this matchup is actually beneficial for Ohio State. Obviously Edey throws a wrinkle in the gameplan, but Key has the ability to stretch the floor — or at least drag Edey away from the rim.
That opens the door for both Sueing and Sensabaugh to operate inside. Ohio State can win with a multitude of scorers and its physicality is often draining, especially on the offensive glass.
The Buckeyes have been the No. 1 offense from an efficiency standpoint all season long. They average 1.179 ppp, per Haslametrics, and aside from Edey's size, hold all the cards in this Big Ten matchup.
Even though Purdue won't be the No. 1 team for much longer, this is still a huge game for Ohio State.
Pick: Ohio State -1.5 (Play to -2.5) |
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