Monday night is the stuff of gamblers' dreams.
The good ole trap game.
The line that seems too good to be true.
How is No. 9 Baylor only a 1.5-point favorite against 16-13 Oklahoma State, who can't seem to buy a win as losers of its last four games?
Well, one thing I've learned at the Action Network is to fade raw sentiments, especially in the face of mounting data.
So here's the situation.
When a team with at least a 10% win differential faces another team and the spread is -2.5 or smaller this year, the team with more wins is 362-364 against the spread. That's over a lengthy 700+ game sample size.
Baylor (75% win rate) fits this criteria over Oklahoma State (55%).
Another wide net: ranked college basketball teams are 184-249-3 ATS (42%) vs. unranked teams this year. A $100 per game bettor would be down $8,118 this season alone.
When that ranked team is on the road, its win rate drops to 40% (77-112-2). A $100 per game bettor in this instance would be down about $4,250.
On a more granular level, let's focus on top 10 teams this season.
Top 10 teams are 106-138-3 (43%) against the spread this year, good for a -16.8% ROI. A $100 per game bettor would be down about $4,200.
This year, as with many years, riding with the far better team — especially on the road — has yielded disastrous results.
As far as schematics go, Baylor will sorely miss Keyonte George, who suffered an ankle sprain vs. Texas during the Bears' last contest and will be out tonight.
While Baylor held their own against the Longhorns, a full game without their best player and leading scorer doesn't bode well against a solid team in pure desperation mode.
The Cowboys need to win their next two games to ensure a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Win and they are in. And they have some pedigree against Baylor, taking them down in January while the Bears were ranked No. 1 overall. Oklahoma State also beat Baylor in 2021 when the latter was ranked No. 2.
The discrepancy between the two squads isn't substantial, either. While Baylor rank No. 14 in KenPom's overall rankings, Oklahoma State are a serviceable 42nd, with the 12th best defense in college basketball.
BetMGM is offering -120 for the Pokes at +1.5 and -110 for the moneyline. I don't value a point spread that tiny, so I'm riding the Cowboys to win outright.
