With 106 games on Saturdays college basketball schedule, we've got one of the biggest slate's of the season so far. Not to mention, the beginning of conference play for some teams and plenty of big name matchups.
As a result, we've got a massive amount of opportunity to find winners on the board. Here are five plays I'm targeting in a PrizePicks lineup for Saturday's Slate.
Caleb Daniels Under 16.5 Points
Caleb Daniels and the Villanova Wildcats will host the Sooners on Saturday looking to avoid their fifth loss in a row. However that may be easier said than done.
Daniels does average 17.4 points per game on the season, However, he's shifted into a more complimentary role to Eric Dixon. Daniels leads the Wildcats in assist per game; more importantly 45.5% of his 22 assist on the season are going to Dixon. Daniels has also had issues with Foul trouble, currently averaging three personal fouls per game.
Villanova will also be up against a Sooners team that is holding opponents to just 25.6% shooting from beyond the arc and 40.2% from the floor. Oklahoma also averages just 14.3 fouls per contest; so i don't see his Daniels maintaining his 5.4 free throw attempts per game average.
Both of these teams ranking outside the top 300 when it comes to adjusted tempo per KenPom isn't going to help Daniels either as I expect even attempts than he's already used to seeing in a slow offense.
I was able to get Daniel's under 16.5 points in at PrizePicks and would back the under here at 15 or better.
Daron Holmes Over 23.5 PTS + REB + AST
Holmes leads the flyers in minutes, points, and Usage, and through eight games on the season he's averaging a PRA total of 24. While he might be averaging just slightly above this listed total I see him having a huge game today against a lacking SELA defense.
The Southeast Louisiana Lions may be one of the worst defensive teams in the country, allowing opponents to rack up 78.5 points while opposing teams are averaging 17.7 assist and 41.7 rebounds per contest. All of which rank outside the top 300 among all division one teams.
The Flyers offense has been less than impressive so far this season, but they've played three games against teams ranked 270th or worst by KenPom. Holmes has gone over a PRA total of 24 in the last two the only time he didn't being their first game of the season against Lindenwood when he came up just short with 22.
I'd feel comfortable in Holmes to go over this total at 24.5 or better.
Reece Beekman Over 9.5 Points
The Virginia Cavaliers Saturday will host the Florida State Seminoles who rank last among all ACC teams in Adjusted Defense. Reece Beckman is currently second for the Cavaliers when it comes to minutes and tied for the lead in points averaging 11.8 per contest.
What stands out to me most about Beekman has been his performance more recently; averaging 12.2 points per game and 15.8 points per 40 minutes played over the last five games. Beekman ranks among the 85th percentile when it comes to true shooting percentage at 62.5% and has shown the ability to consistently find his way to the charity stripe; averaging 4 free throw attempts over the last five games.
I expect Beekman and the Cavaliers as a whole to have a huge game against a Florida State defense that is averaging 18.1 fouls per game over their last five and allowing teams to hit 44.1% from the floor.
I think this line is a little low and would feel comfortable backing Beekman to go over 12 points or better.
Trayce Jackson-Davis Over 25.5 PTS + REB + AST
The Hoosiers' leader in points, rebounds, minutes and Usage will have a challenge on his hands come Saturday against the Scarlet Knights; a team that's given him trouble his entire college career.
But as I mentioned in my write up for this game, I think this is the year TJD finally overcomes a Rutgers team that has been his Kryptonite since he arrived in Bloomington.
On the season TJD is averaging a PRA total of 29.8, In three of his last five games he's totaled 35 or better. Rutgers will be his biggest challenge yet defensively, but I'm of the belief that this Scarlet Knights team has benefited considerably from a lack of competition.
Not to mention TJD ranks in the 99th percentile or better among all Division 1 players when it comes to; Points per 40 minutes, fast break points, points in the paint, second chance points, and 2 point attempts per game.
He's also in the 94th percentile regarding usage percentage, true shooting percentage, and field goal percentage. AND the 97th percentile when it comes to personal fouls drawn and free throw attempts per game.
I don't like Indiana, and I really wish everyone would stop doubting the Hoosiers so I don't have to continue to stand on this soapbox; back TJD to go over his PRA total at 27 or better.
Markquis Nowell Over 6 Assist
Only five players in all of Division I college basketball have more assist than Markquis Nowell on the season. Currently averaging 7.9 assist per game on the season he's been even better more recently with 8.2 per game over the last five.
Nowell is tied for the lead when it comes to minutes with Keyontae Johnson; who has been the scorer on 32.7% of Nowells 55 assist this season. The two are an elite combo that I think can put up a huge game against a Wichita State defense that has been impressive; but has struggled against top competition.
I'd feel comfortable backing Nowell to go over his assist total at 7 or better.
