The SEC Tournament gets underway Wednesday and will feature five straight days of games leading up to Selection Sunday’s finale.
Tennessee earned the No. 1 seed and secured an outright regular-season championship thanks to its three-game win streak over Auburn, Alabama and South Carolina to end the year.
Rick Barnes’ squad did fall to Kentucky in the finale but will avoid the Wildcats until the championship — if both teams make it that far.
We have not had a repeat winner since 2017-18 with Kentucky taking home its fourth straight. Alabama enters as defending champions, looking to bounce back from three losses in its last five.
The SEC currently has seven teams safely projected inside the NCAA Tournament with Texas A&M being the lone bubble team entering this final week.
Four teams finished a game behind Tennessee in what quickly became a down-to-the-wire race.
South Carolina is the odd team out, earning a bye to the second round. Kentucky, Alabama and Auburn all have double-byes and play their first game on Friday.
Texas A&M draws Ole Miss in its opener on Thursday with the winner taking on Kentucky. Picking up a couple of upset wins is crucial for the Aggies, who have won three straight. But it was the five games prior — with losses to Vanderbilt and Arkansas — that sent A&M spiraling toward the bubble.
Can Alabama repeat as the SEC Tournament champion, or will we see a new winner cutting down the nets in Nashville once again?
SEC Tournament Odds & Bracket
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alabama | +130 |
| Auburn | +260 |
| Kentucky | +400 |
| Alabama | +450 |
| Florida | +2000 |
| South Carolina | +6000 |
| Mississippi State | +6500 |
| Texas A&M | +10000 |
| Ole Miss | +25000 |
| LSU | +30000 |
| Arkansas | +30000 |
| Georgia | +50000 |
| Vanderbilt | +100000 |
| Missouri | +100000 |
The Bracket.
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— Southeastern Conference (@SEC) March 10, 2024
Players to Watch
Tennessee's Dalton Knecht
If you want to talk about the best pure scorer in college basketball, look no further than Dalton Knecht. The Northern Colorado transfer averages 21.4 points per game and has been the main reason behind Tennessee’s No. 1 seed.
Auburn's Johni Broome
Another mid-major transfer, Johni Broome has dominated in his second year with Auburn. The 6-foot-10 big leads the Tigers in scoring (16.3), rebounds (8.5) and blocks (2.3).
He can space the floor and is a strong facilitator out of the post.
Alabama's Mark Sears
Mark Sears is the engine and primary ball-handler of this run-and-gun Alabama offense. He leads the Tide in scoring (21.1) and has scored 20-plus in 16-of-18 (88%) SEC games.
Texas A&M's Wade Taylor IV
Though he has been slumping of late, Wade Taylor IV is more than capable of exploding for 30-plus points any given night.
The primary ball handler for A&M, Taylor takes 30% of shots while on the floor and leads the team in both scoring (18.0) and assists (4.1).
Kentucky's Antonio Reeves
The leading scorer for Kentucky, Antonio Reeves has really come into his own this season.
The Wildcats are one of the most dynamic offenses in basketball, and Reeves has been chief among the guards in scoring (20.2). He's shooting 44% from 3 and has scored 20-plus points in each of UK’s last seven games.
Trends to Watch
- Missouri did not win a single conference game in the regular season.
- Ole Miss ended the regular season losing eight of its final 10 and has fallen off the bubble barring a late tournament push.
- Kentucky has won five straight and seven of its last eight, including road wins over Auburn and Tennessee.
- Mississippi State has lost four straight to end the season.
- South Carolina won four of its last five entering the tourney and had more SEC wins (13) than it had regular-season wins last year (11).
Potential Matchups to Keep an Eye On
No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Ole Miss
Potential Second Round
This is a great matchup purely because of the tournament implications.
Ole Miss has found itself out of contention for an at-large bid — or so it seems — while Texas A&M desperately needs to make a push in Nashville to be considered in what is a vastly growing bubble pool.
Lose, and the Aggies are almost certainly out. This game is projected at A&M -4, so it should be a close game.
Oh, and these two teams squared off in the regular-season finale, and A&M battered Ole Miss, 86-60. I'm super intrigued by the idea of watching two highly motivated teams trying to salvage possibly-lost seasons.
No. 6 Florida vs. No. 3 Alabama
Potential Quarterfinal
This is the most entertaining potential quarterfinal matchup, as Florida and Alabama split the season series. The Gators nearly upset the Tide in Tuscaloosa — eventually falling in overtime — before beating the brakes off them a week ago in Gainesville, 105-87.
Alabama has looked mortal of late and has dealt with the injury bug. Latrell Wrightsell returned at full strength against Arkansas, but Rylan Griffen missed the season finale.
Florida’s size and physicality have been obvious issues for Alabama, as opponents have finally taken advantage of the Tide’s soft interior defense.
No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 1 Tennessee
Potential Semifinal
Assuming chalk holds, we have ourselves a great game as Auburn and Tennessee square off for the second time this season.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Dalton Knecht went nuclear for 39 points in the first matchup between these two brutes, serving the obvious difference-maker in what was a close game throughout. However, the scoreboard (92-84) was less telling of how physical and back-and-forth the game was.
Johni Broome dominated his matchup with Jonas Aidoo and also added a team-high five assists. These are two capable NCAA Tournament teams, and I would not be surprised to see either cutting down the nets in April.
I’ll surely be grabbing my popcorn for two teams that rank inside the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as KenPom’s top five teams in the country.
Favorite Future: Florida (+2000)
I continue to believe that Florida sits among the most underrated teams in college basketball.
Since Feb. 1, this is Bart Torvik’s No. 1 team with an elite offense that prides itself on physicality and using length around the rim to create second-chance opportunities.
When it comes to backing a team in March, you need to have the offensive firepower and a superstar to help carry you. That’s exactly what Walter Clayton Jr. can do for this team, and there are plenty of others — Zyon Pullin, Will Richard and Riley Kugel — who can heat up and provide consistency on the offensive end.
Florida is the No. 4 team in offensive rebounding rate, a key toward its success.
The Gators are the 11th-tallest team in the country, funnel opponents off the perimeter and into the paint where size awaits, while also being an experienced group. In SEC play, Florida ranks as the best 3-point defense.
It also happens to have the most favorable draw.
Assuming that the Gators can get by the winner of Georgia-Missouri, they have Alabama on deck — a team that, as I highlighted earlier, is trending downward. We could even see Nate Oats rest players like Griffen and even Wrightsell as the Tide heal up for the NCAA Tournament, allowing UF to truck on through.
Next up, assuming chalk holds, is Kentucky. Florida split the season series in two close games, and the third part of this saga would surely be a coin-flip once again.
And who knows — we could see a desperate A&M team pull off an upset in the quarterfinals. The Gators collapsed late against the Aggies and should be extra motivated to beat them.
To me, the draw provides great value for a +2000 long shot.
Yes, Tennessee or Auburn would be a scary matchup, and it’ll likely be one of the two come the championship game. If anything, that provides a hedge opportunity. Although, we did see UF take down Auburn by 16 earlier this year.
Regardless, given how Florida has been playing of late paired with the draw it has — avoiding Tennessee and Auburn until the championship game — I'm more than willing to take a swing on the Gators here.
Playing it Safer: Kentucky (+400)
If you’re not one for a long shot, I think Kentucky is a great second option. When it comes to teams playing at their peak, the Wildcats are surely among them.
Since Feb. 13, after its loss to Gonzaga and the start of Kentucky winning 7-of-8 to end the season, Bart Torvik ranks John Calipari’s squad as the No. 12 team in college basketball.
The Wildcats offense has always been dominant, but the defensive intensity of late has been much more promising.
Tack on Tre Mitchell providing some minutes off the bench, and Kentucky’s frontcourt is slowly figuring itself out. In the last month, UK has been a top-50 team in defensive efficiency. That may not seem great, but the Wildcats are 93rd for the full season.
Similarly to Florida, Kentucky gets to avoid the Tennessee-Auburn side of the bracket and would presumably draw the winner of Florida-Alabama if chalk holds.
Given Alabama’s recent trend and injuries, and the fact Kentucky hung 117 points on the Tide a couple of weeks back, the Wildcats are the obvious favorite to come out of that half of the bracket.
Kentucky has also racked up wins over both Auburn and Tennessee, and in its current form, I wouldn't be surprised if that happened again.
It seems like the Cats are slowly figuring things out, which is expected with such a young group taking on large roles.
Playing it Crazy: Texas A&M (+10000)
There’s an obvious reason I’m avoiding the Tennessee-Auburn side of the bracket if it’s not clear already. Those are two brutes, and to me, the best in the SEC.
But if 20-1 wasn't long enough for you and you want to back a desperate A&M squad, I wouldn’t blame you.
This is not for the faint of heart. There’s a reason A&M ranks 347th in effective field-goal percentage and sits just barely inside the top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
But at the same time, the Aggies fit the profile of a potential Cinderella team in conference play.
They have the high-level scorer in Wade Taylor IV, and the perfect complementary piece in the physical Tyrece Radford. This is the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country, creating second-chance opportunities on 42% (!) of shot attempts.
If A&M starts to hit shots, we’ve seen what this team is capable of. The Aggies already wins over Kentucky, Florida and Tennessee under their belt.
Texas A&M finds itself on the bubble and should be able to take down Ole Miss in a back-to-back. Miracle runs have happened before, and this team is top-50 in both Division I experience and minutes continuity.
Oh and funny enough, the majority of the roster was on the Aggies when they fell in the SEC Championship in each of the last two seasons.
So, why not take a swing? Could this lose in A&M’s first matchup? Yes, 100%. But could the Aggies also make a deep run? I wouldn’t be surprised.
