Stanford vs Cal Odds, Pick
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 153.5 -115o / -105u | +125 |
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 153.5 -115o / -105u | -150 |
Stanford and Cal renew a rivalry on the hardwood Friday night to tip off this weekend’s action in the Pac-12.
The Golden Bears have struggled this season under first-year head coach Mark Madsen, owning a 7-12 overall record and 3-5 mark in conference play.
Meanwhile, this Cardinal team has won three of their last four in league action to improve to 10-8 on the season.
Stanford has won basketball’s version of the "Big Game" nine of the last 15 times, which should make the home team hungry for a huge win.
So, where does the betting value lie in Friday night's college basketball rivalry?
Stanford Cardinal
After making the NIT in just his second year with the program, head coach Jerod Haase looked like he had Stanford moving in the right direction. However, it was the school’s last postseason appearance under Haase.
He did lead the 2019-20 team to 20 wins before all postseason tournaments were canceled, but he needs to end this streak of not playing late in March.
One thing Haase doesn’t have an issue with this season is consistent scoring, with four players averaging double-figures. Kanaan Carlyle leads the way with 15.7 points per game, but Maxime Raynaud is also stealing the headlines.
On the year, Raynaud ranks second in the Pac-12 in rebounding (9.7 RPG) and 16th in scoring (14.1 PPG). This duo will have to continue to perform if the Cardinal want to make the Big Dance.
Cal Golden Bears
While this hasn’t been the best debut season so far, Madsen’s squad has had a lot of close calls that could have gone either way. Of Cal’s 19 games played, 15 have been decided by nine points or fewer, and eight have been by five or less.
Similar to Stanford, Madsen also boasts a dynamic duo in Jaylon Tyson and Fardaws Aimaq. Tyson is an elite scorer, leading the conference and ranking top-15 in the country at 21.0 PPG.
Meanwhile, Aimaq has been a double-double machine this year. Heading into the Washington State game on Jan. 20, he had the most double-doubles in the Pac-12 and third-most nationally.
These two have been the main factors as to why Cal is averaging 75.6 points per game, an 11-point increase from the program's average over the previous six seasons.
Stanford vs Cal
Betting Pick & Prediction
After digging into this game, I believe the oddsmakers have the numbers right on the spread and total. This wouldn’t be my favorite play of the week, but I do see value in another market for this matchup.
So, my best bet is to take California on the first-half spread at -1 or better. If you'd rather play the moneyline, I wouldn't take odds worse than -130.
Stanford ranks 58th in the country in first-half scoring at 37.1 points per game. However, this Cardinal team sees a large dip away from home. In road or neutral environments, Haase’s squad averages just 31.1 PPG in the opening period. You see a similar drop in the average first-half margin.
Stanford ranks 114th with an average lead of 2.1 points at halftime, but this falls to a deficit of 5.7 points per game away from home. In fact, this Cardinal squad has been trailing at the break in every contest away from Maples Pavilion.
There's also a chance starting point guard Jared Bynum may still be out of the lineup due to injury. This could lead to a slower start for Stanford without its floor general on the road in a rivalry game.
I don’t trust Cal for a full two halves, but I do see the Bears having an edge to a faster start on Friday night.
