Just like last year, each week for the remainder of the college basketball season, I will share my favorite spots for the Saturday slate. In addition to my raw projection, I will focus on matchups, similar spots, injuries, potential regression and other ancillary factors.
Let's kick things off this season with nine spots for today with five tipping off in the afternoon and four more in primetime.
For reference, I write these up on Friday afternoon after openers come out. The market will obviously move overnight, so I always will list which price I'd play each game to. Also, with a full NFL slate and the college football national title this weekend, the write-ups for this week won't be as robust as they have been in the past or will be for the rest of the season.
- 2022-23: 33-22 (60.0%) +9.24 units
- 2023-24: 0-0 +0.0 units
- Overall: 33-22 (60.0%) +9.24 units
Clemson (-1) vs North Carolina
12 ET on ESPN2
This looks like a good opportunity to buy Clemson at home off of a loss and out for revenge for an embarrassing loss at UNC last season. From a matchup perspective, the UNC transition defense has been surprisingly strong, but that might play into the hands of Clemson, which has thrived in its half court offense that runs through PJ Hall. The Tigers should get plenty of open looks from the perimeter where they have plenty of capable shooters to take advantage of the Tar Heels' perimeter defense. Clemson has also graded out elite in its press offense, which it will see periodically against the Heels.
The Clemson D remains pretty spotty against dribble creating guards, so RJ Davis could have a good day at the office for North Carolina. However, the Clemson defense is owed some serious shooting regression. Despite ranking in the 97th percentile in guarded jump shots allowed, opponents have scored at 1.02 points per possession on those opportunities, which ranks in the 20th percentile national, per Synergy. I wouldn't be surprised if the Heels if had a very off-shooting day, which would prove very problematic against Clemson, which can neutralize their prowess on the offensive glass.
Clemson does still miss two depth pieces in Alex Hemenway and Jack Clark but even if neither return, the Tigers should have enough offensive firepower to take care of business at home against a UNC squad playing in only its second true road game. It did come out on top against Pitt, but the Panthers simply couldn't hit a perimeter shot all game.
*Bet up to -3
Florida (-1) vs Kentucky
12:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
I'm a Kentucky fan by marriage and have to admit these young Cats are way ahead of where I thought they'd be at this point in the season. However, I think this is a prime opportunity to fade them in only their second true road game with the first coming against lowly Louisville.
I think the Gators come into this SEC showdown a bit undervalued in the market after not having a full roster early in the season. They are better than their overall metrics suggest.
Plus, this is an advantageous matchup for the Gators against a Kentucky team that wants to get out in transition as much as any team in the country (98th percentile) and are elite when doing so. That might prove difficult against a Florida defense that ranks in the fourth percentile in transition opportunities allowed, per Synergy. And when opponents do get the rare chance to run against the Gators, they haven't found much success.
Florida also prefers to play with tempo in transition when the opportunity presents itself, but it actually has been much more efficient in the half court. Well, Kentucky's defense has been much better at limiting transition chances, so this could work in Florida's favor. In the half court, it also should exploit Kentucky's weaknesses in defending pick-and-roll and in the post.
From a regression standpoint, Kentucky likely won't shoot 41.6% from deep all season, which ranks second nationally. Don't be surprised to see an off-shooting day from the Cats against a Florida defense that has been unlucky from a jump shooting perspective. If Kentucky can't run and can't maintain its unsustainably high shooting clip from the outside, it could be tough sledding against a Gators squad that will clean up on the defensive glass in this matchup.
Lastly, while John Calipari has done a nice job with this Kentucky roster to date, Florida certainly has the coaching edge with Todd Golden.
*Bet up to -2.5
St. John's +5.5 at Villanova
1 p.m. ET on FOX
After surviving in a one-point home win over Xavier, this is a quick turnaround for a Villanova team that could still be without Justin Moore, whose ball handling would be sorely missed in this particular matchup. The quick turnaround could be even more of an issue against a Johnnies bunch that has recently implemented a key schematic change on defense, switching from their pressure matchup zone to more man-to-man late in the possession. That's a tough preparation for coach Kyle Neptune, who I'm just not very high on in general. Villanova will certainly be at a disadvantage in the coaching department today.
It's always tough to bet Villanova games since there will usually be a ton of three-point variance, but I'm more than happy to back a St. John's team I believe will continue to trend up throughout league play. Plus, Villanova won’t turn the Jonnies over and really won't fully exploit them on the offensive glass. This one should go right down to the wire.
*Bet up to +4
Providence (+11) at Creighton
2 p.m. ET on FS1
I think you'll get a best effort game from the Friars, who suffered a rare home loss this week to Seton Hall. They also lost star forward Bryce Hopkins for the season, which will certainly lower their overall ceiling. However, I like backing teams in their first game without their star player, as you tend to get a more focused effort from the rest of the roster in a rallying spot. The PC ball movement could also benefit overall in this particular matchup.
And even without Hopkins, this is a favorable matchup for Providence. Defensively, they drop Oduro to take away rim access and switch everything else to limit three-point attempts. To wit, it ranks third nationally in 2P% allowed and 24th in three-point attempt rate. That forces opponents to operate in isolation, which is not where the Blue Jays excel.
On the other side of the ball, Creighton doesn't pressure the ball, ranking 362nd in the country in forced turnover rate. That will really help a Providence offense that can get a bit too loose with the ball at times. Plus, without much depth, especially after losing Hopkins, it will also help that Creighton doesn't draw a ton of fouls (341st), while PC has done an outstanding job of defending without fouling all season.
Give me the Friars catching double digits on the road against a Creighton team that I believe is in the discussion for one of the most overrated in the land.
*Bet down to +10.5
Arkansas (+4.5) vs Auburn
2 p.m. ET on ESPN2
I had this spot circled as a buy on Arkansas for a while now. The Hogs have had a disappointing start to the season, but they are a bit underrated from a metrics standpoint since they now have their full roster available. Keyon Menifield, who dropped 32 last game, made his debut in mid-December, while fellow Pac-12 transfer Jalen Graham has also since returned after missing time. Even Tramon Mark missed a game and potential lottery pick Trevon Brazile had a nagging injury that limited him for a few contests.
Meanwhile, we are likely at the top of the market on the Tigers, who lost their only true road game against App State. Plus, Auburn's wins earlier in the season don’t look as strong as they may have appeared at the time against the likes of Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Indiana and USC.
From a matchup perspective, Auburn's defensive scheme forces opponents into plenty of isolation, which Arkansas will have no issues operating in with its personnel.
Lastly, Bud Walton Arena is always rocking for league play, but the home-court advantage could provide even a bigger boost in a matchup of two teams that both foul and draw fouls at a very high rate. A friendly home whistle could go a long way in determining the outcome of this SEC clash.
*Bet down to +3
Illinois State (+3) vs Southern Illinois
7 p.m. ET on ESPN+
This is your regression spot of the day. Illinois State, which should come out with a spirited effort at home after back-to-back embarrassing losses, is due some major positive shooting regression. The Redbirds are only shooting 28.2% from three on the season, which ranks 334th in the country. Now, some teams just can't shoot, but Illinois State profiles much better based on their historical shooting data.
Plus, it's not like Illinois State is taking bad shots. They rank in the 90th percentile in unguarded jump shot frequency. However, they grade out in just the second percentile in points per possession on those shots. Meanwhile, the Southern Illinois defense has graded out in the 99th percentile in points per possession on unguarded jumpers. Opponents simply haven't been able to hit wide open shots against the Salukis, who have held teams to 26.5% from beyond the arc, which ranks fifth nationally. For reference, they held opponents to 33.0% (116th) and lost their best defender (Lance Jones) from that team.
Additionally, SIU plays very slow (334th in Adjusted Tempo) and rarely looks to push. That plays right into the hands of Illinois State, which has struggled mightily defending in transition, grading out in the 11th percentile.
Xavier Johnson, who would be my pick for the Valley conference player of the year if the season ended today, has been an absolute monster for the Salukis. However, I think this is the spot to back the home Redbirds, who could benefit from a massive wave of positive shooting regression in a game where points could come at a premium.
*Bet down to +2
Indiana (+3.5) vs Ohio State
8 p.m. ET on FOX
After a double-digit loss at Nebraska, I expect to get Indiana's best effort in a game the Hoosiers desperately need.
Starting point guard Xavier Johnson returned from injury last game, but looked extremely rusty. His ability to create off the bounce is critical for this struggling Hoosier offense, so I'm banking on him looking much crisper in his second game back. Plus, Indiana's elite interior should have success working in the post against an Ohio State defense that is a bit soft in that department, ranking in the 36th percentile in post defense, per Synergy.
Home court advantage continues to reign supreme in the Big 10 and I think it will once again in this spot against an Ohio State squad that lost its only true road game of the season at Penn State. Meanwhile, Indiana has played much better in Assembly Hall even taking Kansas to the brink without Johnson a few weeks back.
Lastly, while Indiana certainly doesn't profile as a good shooting team, the advanced splits suggest a major regression edge for the Hoosiers on both ends of the floor, while the opposite holds true for the Buckeyes.
*Bet down to +2
Hawaii (-1) at Cal State Northridge
8 p.m. ET on ESPN+
I made a New Year's resolution to stop betting on Hawaii basketball. Well, like most of my past resolutions, that didn't even last a week.
I was high coming into the season on this 'Bows team, but they've let me down a few times. However, that's primarily been due to bad shooting luck. Before finding their stroke again in a road win at Bakersfield on Thursday, they lost four of five thanks in large part to 22% shooting from beyond the arc. For a team built on taking away the three on defense and shooting a high frequency on offense, shooting variance is even more meaningful and I think they can continue the momentum they built two nights ago against a Northridge defense that has held opponents to 29.3% from beyond the arc despite allowing three-point attempts at one of the 30 highest rates in the country.
Northridge has been one of the biggest surprised of the young season, having won six straight, which included a huge upset at UCLA. However, I'm still not sold on their recent ascent and they are likely at the top of their market value coming into this game. This is a good matchup for Hawaii and a good opportunity to sell high on a Matador bunch that I still rate poorly.
*Bet up to -2
Utah State (-1) vs Colorado State
9 p.m. ET on FS1
This should be one of the better games of the day, but I'm siding with the home Aggies in what profiles as a great coaching matchup. The Rams may still be without Josiah Strong, who will be missed on the defensive end, but I think this comes down to Utah State's ability to take advantage of Colorado State's lack of size in the post. If you haven't seen Great Osobor play this season, check him out if you get a chance tonight. He should have a big night on the block. Plus, the outside shots should eventually start falling for the Aggies.
*Bet up to -2
