If you're anything like me as a bettor, you probably enjoy a good parlay — so why don't we line up a Sweet 16 parlay with the added bonus of an odds boost before Thursday's games tip off?
Of course, parlays are not the most mathematically sound bets you can make. In fact, almost every parlay you'll ever bet is -EV. And that's OK, as long as you know what you're getting yourself into, and as long as you're doing it for entertainment. Just don't trick yourself into thinking it's a ticket to a big payday, and an occasional parlay is just fine.
That brings us to Thursday's Sweet 16 games. I started my day by watching Big Bets on Campus on the Action Network app, where Stuckey and the Three-Man Weave crew gave their best bets for every Sweet 16 game on Thursday's March Madness slate.
I placed all my favorite bets from that show individually, then realized that a parlay could be fun, too — especially since I have a 20% odds boost at BetMGM. Chances are that you do, too.
So here's the Sweet 16 parlay I'm betting at BetMGM with my 20% odds boost, based on our experts' best bets for Thursday's games.
Sweet 16 Parlay at BetMGM: +1053 Boosted to +1284
Kansas State +1.5
UConn -3.5 (Play to -5.5)
Florida Atlantic +5.5
Gonzaga 1H +0.5
Kansas State vs. Michigan State: Kansas State +1.5
The over in this game is another alternative for the first leg, as offered up on the show by Matt Cox. And now that Kansas State has flipped to 1.5-point favorites almost in a heartbeat approximately 25 minutes before tip, you might want to take that alternative.
But both Ky McKeon and Jim Root were on the Wildcats here as underdogs initially. As Jim said, Kansas State has the two best players on the floor, and the crew believes the coaching matchup is fairly even, as well, believe it or not.
UConn vs. Arkansas: UConn -3.5 (Play to -5.5)
Stuckey, Matt and Ky were all taking UConn to cover -5.5 in the second Sweet 16 matchup on Thursday, and as an added cherry on top, UConn is down to -3.5 at BetMGM.
Talented as Arkansas is, we're counting on the combination of their faulty shooting and UConn's presence inside to get the Huskies the cover in the second leg of our Sweet 16 parlay.
If you don't think UConn gets the cover here, Jim is on the under as an alternative for this leg.
Florida Atlantic vs Tennessee: FAU +5.5
This one comes down to familiarity — or, more precisely, the lack thereof. As Jim put it, Tennessee doesn't really get to see the style of spread perimeter attack FAU employs in the SEC.
The whole crew expects this one to be competitive, at least, with the line perhaps a bit inflated by the recency bias that comes with the Volunteers' second-round performance against Duke. And while Tennessee's 3-point field goal percentage allowed was elite this season, the Vols gave up a huge volume of 3-point attempts — mostly against teams that couldn't shoot. That's not the case with FAU.
UCLA vs Gonzaga: Gonzaga 1H +0.5
Befitting such an elite matchup, the Big Bets on Campus crew had a variety of opinions on this one. I liked Matt's argument for Gonzaga to cover in the first half, but I was almost equally swayed by Stuckey's perspective on why UCLA will cover the full-game spread of Bruins -1.5.
Ky also made an argument for Gonzaga to cover +1.5, and Jim was on the under.
My suggestion is to watch the end of the video and see which argument resonates the most with you — or, barring that, check out our UCLA vs Gonzaga betting preview for one of our expert's best bets on the game.
Either way, best of luck with your Sweet 16 parlay. Here's hoping it provides plenty of bang for your entertainment buck on Thursday.
