Texas vs BYU Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
Rodney Terry's Texas Longhorns have rejuvenated their season with back-to-back wins over Baylor and Oklahoma. Many experts deemed that the Horns were on the bubble for the NCAA tournament, but now they find themselves in a position to solidify things over their next four games.
Next, the Horns will travel to Provo, Utah, to take on the BYU Cougars. The Cougars have lost their last two games, but this is a bounce back opportunity.
Texas Longhorns
There's no doubting the talent of the Horns, but the schedule is not doing them any favors. The win at Oklahoma was impressive, but here are the Horns' next four games:
- @ BYU
- vs. Houston
- @ TCU
- vs. Iowa State
It's not strange to say the Horns need to go at least 2-2 in these contests to stay alive for an NCAA tournament bid. I believe they're in for a rude awakening, though.
The Horns face a tall task at Provo, as they'll have disadvantages on both sides of the floor. The Cougars have been scuffling lately, but they're far too talented to continue that trend.
The outcome of this matchup depends on the Horns' ability to shoot and defend the 3-pointer. They're shooting 38% from deep as a team.
The backcourt of Max Abmas and Tyrese Hunter has been on fire, but the Cougars are 12th in opponent 3PT%. If the 3-pointers aren't falling, the Horns need to dominate inside, and I doubt they can.
It's also concerning that they're careless with the basketball, even though the Cougars don't force turnovers.
The Longhorns' defense needs to step up to keep the contest close. They're 64th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency but are 198th in opponent 3PT%. They don't allow a plethora of 3-point attempts, so this data suggests opponents have been slightly fortunate.
According to ShotQuality, the Horns are due for negative regression. I expect the Cougars to exploit the perimeter on both sides of the floor, which will be too much for the Longhorns to overcome.
BYU Cougars
The biggest question around college basketball is whether or not the Cougars are legitimate. The talent and coaching mesh is evident, but it'll be interesting to see how they fair for the remainder of the conference schedule.
After Texas defeated Oklahoma, I knew it would be a good buy-low opportunity for the Cougars. They desperately need a win, as they can't afford to lose more conference games at home.
The Cougars played Houston tough, but they had a poor performance from beyond the arc that cost them the victory. They're not shy from letting it rip from deep, so I expect them to exploit the Horns' perimeter defense in that fashion.
They're top 25 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.
I'd like to see them get to the foul line more often, as they're amongst the nation's worst teams in free-throw attempts per game.
The backcourt battle should provide a ton of fireworks. Dallin Hall and Trevin Knell have been nearly automatic from deep, so if these two are clicking early on, it'll be a long afternoon for the Horns.
The Cougars are sixth in 2PT%, which will give them another area to attack if they're cold again from deep. The Horns have a solid interior defense, but the threat of the Cougars' outside attack may force that area to be left vacant.
Texas vs. BYU
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm selling the Horns, and taking advantage of the situational spot for the Cougars. After traveling to Norman on Tuesday, the Longhorns have to hit the road and enter the altitude of Provo.
It's now or never for the Cougars, and if they lose, they could enter a free-fall in the Big 12 standings.
Dropping to 2-5 in the conference would theoretically eliminate them from a regular season title.
Between the matchup advantages and the situational spot, the Cougars should win the game comfortably. Their 3-point shooting is due to turnaround, and this is a matchup for that to be the case.
Even if their shots aren't falling, their size advantage should help counteract the strong Horns interior defense.
The Cougars are efficient as is from inside of the arc, so it's a big help to have that advantage.
