Wake Forest vs North Carolina Odds
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | -375 |
Wake Forest is flirting with an NCAA tournament bid for the first time in the Steve Forbes era and the first time since 2016 under Danny Manning. The Demon Deacons boast some impressive metrics, as they sit 33rd in KenPom and 42nd in the NCAA NET rankings.
The one thing Wake doesn't have in its favor? It has zero Q1 wins. That's the same thing Wake had going against its resume two seasons ago, but that could change in 2024 if the Deacs top North Carolina in Chapel Hill.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
For a huge win to occur, Wake Forest needs huge outings from its dynamic guard duo of Kevin "Boopie" Miller (17.4 PPG, 4.2 APG) and Hunter Sallis (17.7 PPG). The two guards are just the latest portal finds from Forbes, who is a mastermind at finding ACC-caliber guards.
It's not just a great duo, as shooting guard Cameron Hildreth (15 points) completes the trio. Very few teams have three players who average 15+ points, so that's a major advantage for Wake.
Additionally, Wake has one of the more efficient offenses in the ACC, ranking 28th in Offensive Efficiency and 23rd in effective field goal percentage. These guards attempt good shots and connect on their shots more often than not.
Plus, when the game gets into the final stages, Wake shoots 80% from the charity stripe.
The one missing piece early in the year was sharpshooter Damari Monsanto, who made his season debut on Saturday against Louisville. In typical fashion, Monsanto scored 12 points in 11 minutes of action. He shot over 40% from 3 a season ago and should provide valuable bench minutes.
Meanwhile, Wake is decent on defense, ranking 58th in Defensive Efficiency. Wake surrendered 82+ points in both losses during conference play (at Florida State and NC State).
Wake's interior defense against the dominant Armando Bacot is the biggest concern in this matchup. Efton Reid III has steadied Wake's front line, but 7-footer Matthew Marsh and 6-foot-10 Zach Keller are far less reliable. Wake must keep Reid on the court against the Heels.
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North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina is fully repenting for its awful season in 2022-23. The Tar Heels sit inside the AP Poll top-five and are seventh in KenPom.
The biggest difference from a season ago? How good the defense is. The Tar Heels rank fourth nationally in Defensive Efficiency. Hubert Davis added two defensive-minded players in Harrison Ingram (12.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 40% from 3) and Cormac Ryan (11.3 points) to compliment the built-in core of Bacot and RJ Davis.
With the lion's share of the backcourt shots sans Caleb Love, Davis looks like a totally different player. He's averaging a career-best 20.2 points on 43% shooting and 42% from 3. Davis looks like a stone-cold lock for All-American status in his senior campaign.
Coach Davis needs a vintage effort from Bacot, his star big. I assumed Bacot could average Hunter Dickinson-caliber numbers once he returned for his fifth college season. That hasn't happened, though.
Bacot is averaging great numbers of 14 points and 10 rebounds per contest, but he's shooting the ball only nine times per game — the fewest since his sophomore year. Bacot should feast if Reid gets saddled with fouls.
My biggest concern about Carolina comes when Davis and Bacot struggle. Sure, Ingram and Ryan can pick up the slack, but those are the only four players on UNC's roster averaging double-digit points.
While freshman point guard Elliot Cadeau is promising and makes jaw-dropping plays, he has a light scoring bag. Someone like Cadeau or big-man Jae'Lyn Withers could decide whether the Heels cover in a difficult conference game.
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Wake Forest vs. North Carolina
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Tar Heels are absolutely walloping teams in league play, winning all seven conference games by double digits.
I'll take Carolina giving the eight and take it up to 8.5 in this in-state conference showdown.
UNC is one of the most profitable teams in the ACC. The Tar Heels are covering the spread 61% of the time. I think the positive ATS trend continues against Wake.
Pick: North Carolina -8 (Play to -8.5)
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