2024-25 NFL MVP Odds Tracker: Lines for the NFL's Biggest Stars
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Player | Odds |
---|---|
Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs | +400 |
Josh Allen - Buffalo Bills | +800 |
C.J. Stroud - Houston Texans | +850 |
Joe Burrow - Cincinnati Bengals | +900 |
Jalen Hurts - Philadelphia Eagles | +1000 |
Brock Purdy - San Francisco 49ers | +1400 |
Lamar Jackson - Baltimore Ravens | +1800 |
Aaron Rodgers - New York Jets | +1800 |
Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins | +2200 |
Jared Goff - Detroit Lions | +2200 |
Dak Prescott - Dallas Cowboys | +2500 |
Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars | +3000 |
Matthew Stafford - Los Angeles Rams | +3300 |
Anthony Richardson - Indianapolis Colts | +3300 |
Justin Herbert - Los Angeles Chargers | +3300 |
Kirk Cousins - Atlanta Falcons | +3500 |
Christian McCaffrey - San Francisco 49ers | +4000 |
Caleb Williams - Chicago Bears | +4000 |
Jordan Love - Green Bay Packers | +5000 |
Kyler Murray - Arizona Cardinals | +5500 |
Tyreek Hill - Miami Dolphins | +6000 |
Saquon Barkley - Philadelphia Eagles | +7500 |
Deshaun Watson - Cleveland Browns | +7500 |
Baker Mayfield - Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +7500 |
Russell Wilson - Pittsburgh Steelers | +11000 |
Geno Smith - Seattle Seahawks | +12500 |
Justin Fields - Pittsburgh Steelers | +12500 |
Justin Jefferson - Minnesota Vikings | +12500 |
Daniel Jones - New York Giants | +15000 |
Jayden Daniels - Washington Commanders | +15000 |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, updated in real-time. Confused? Learn more about how American odds work.
A quarterback’s been named MVP 11 years in a row and all but once over the past 18. So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the top 18 favorites to win it this year are all QBs.
Patrick Mahomes tops the list as he looks to win the third MVP of his career as he previously won it in 2018 and 2022. He’d become the seventh player to win at least three, joining Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Jim Brown and Johnny Unitas.
Lamar Jackson can also join that elite list if he can win the award in back-to-back years. The reigning MVP also captured it in 2019. However, he’s tied for just the eighth best odds heading into the year.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers could tie Peyton Manning for the most MVPs with five should he win it this season. He was previously named MVP in 2011, 2014, 2020 and 2021.
CJ Stroud boasts the second-best odds to win the award after being named last year’s Rookie of the Year. He’s followed by Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love and Jared Goff who are all looking for their first MVP awards.
Christian McCaffrey has the best odds of any non-quarterback. He’d join Adrian Peterson (2012), LaDainian Tomlinson (2006), Shaun Alexander (2005) and Marshall Faulk (2000) as running backs to win the award over the past 25 years.
Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill has the best odds of any wide receiver to win MVP and would become the first wideout to ever win the award. Micah Parsons has the best odds of any defensive player. He’d join Alan Page (1971) and Lawrence Taylor (1986) as the only defensive players to do so.
2024-25 NFL MVP Odds Comparison
Compare odds for NFL MVP across all major U.S. sportsbooks.
FUTURES | Consensus | Cons. | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() |
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![]() | +450 | N/A | +400 | +475 | +350 | +450 | |
![]() | +850 | N/A | +850 | +800 | +1200 | +1000 | |
![]() | +850 | N/A | +800 | +900 | +800 | +900 | |
![]() | +950 | N/A | +900 | +950 | +1000 | +800 | |
![]() | +1000 | N/A | +1000 | +1200 | +1000 | +1000 | |
![]() | +1700 | N/A | +1800 | +1700 | +1600 | +1400 | |
![]() | +1800 | N/A | +1400 | +2000 | +1600 | +1600 | |
![]() | +1800 | N/A | +1800 | +1800 | +2000 | +2000 | |
![]() | +2000 | N/A | +2500 | +2000 | +2000 | +1800 | |
![]() | +2200 | N/A | +2200 | +2000 | +2500 | +2200 | |
![]() | +2336 | N/A | +5000 | +1500 | +7500 | +5000 | |
![]() | +2500 | N/A | +2200 | +2500 | +2000 | +2500 | |
![]() | +3000 | N/A | +3000 | +3000 | +3000 | +2500 | |
![]() | +3000 | N/A | +3300 | +3000 | +3000 | +3000 | |
![]() | +3300 | N/A | +3300 | +3500 | +3000 | +1700 | |
![]() | +3500 | N/A | +3300 | +3500 | +4000 | +3300 | |
![]() | +3500 | N/A | +3500 | +3500 | +3000 | +3300 | |
![]() | +4500 | N/A | +4000 | +4500 | +5000 | +4000 | |
![]() | +5000 | N/A | +4000 | +6000 | +5000 | +5000 | |
![]() | +5000 | N/A | +5500 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | |
![]() | +7500 | N/A | +7500 | +7500 | +7500 | +5000 | |
![]() | +10000 | N/A | +7500 | +10000 | +20000 | +10000 | |
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![]() | +10000 | N/A | +7500 | +10000 | +10000 | +8000 | |
![]() | +10000 | N/A | +12500 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | |
![]() | +11000 | N/A | +11000 | +10000 | +15000 | +10000 | |
![]() | +12500 | N/A | +12500 | +13000 | +10000 | +10000 | |
![]() | +13344 | N/A | N/A | +10000 | +20000 | +10000 | |
![]() | +15000 | N/A | +15000 | +15000 | +20000 | +12500 | |
![]() | +15000 | N/A | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | |
![]() | +15000 | N/A | +17500 | +15000 | +15000 | +20000 | |
![]() | +15000 | N/A | +17500 | +15000 | +15000 | +12500 | |
![]() | +15000 | N/A | +15000 | +15000 | +10000 | +12500 | |
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![]() | +18000 | N/A | +15000 | +18000 | +30000 | +15000 | |
![]() | +20000 | N/A | +17500 | +20000 | +30000 | +15000 | |
![]() | +20000 | N/A | +22500 | +20000 | +20000 | +10000 | |
![]() | +20000 | N/A | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 | +10000 | |
![]() | +20000 | N/A | +15000 | +20000 | N/A | N/A | |
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![]() | +20000 | N/A | +15000 | +20000 | N/A | +15000 | |
![]() | +21177 | N/A | +22500 | +20000 | N/A | N/A | |
![]() | +22223 | N/A | +30000 | +20000 | N/A | +20000 | |
![]() | +22223 | N/A | +25000 | +20000 | +30000 | +15000 | |
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![]() | +25000 | N/A | +25000 | +25000 | +30000 | +50000 | |
Ryan TannehillR.Tannehill | +25000 | N/A | N/A | +25000 | N/A | N/A | |
![]() | +25000 | N/A | +25000 | +30000 | +20000 | +15000 | |
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![]() | +27274 | N/A | +30000 | +25000 | +40000 | N/A | |
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![]() | +30000 | N/A | +30000 | +25000 | +30000 | +15000 | |
![]() | +30000 | N/A | +32500 | +30000 | N/A | N/A | |
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![]() | +30000 | N/A | N/A | +30000 | N/A | N/A | |
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![]() | +35000 | N/A | +30000 | +35000 | +40000 | +25000 | |
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![]() | +40000 | N/A | +50000 | +40000 | N/A | +20000 | |
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![]() | +41180 | N/A | +35000 | +50000 | +30000 | N/A | |
![]() | +44446 | N/A | +50000 | +40000 | N/A | +25000 | |
![]() | +44446 | N/A | +50000 | +40000 | N/A | +30000 | |
![]() | +44446 | N/A | +50000 | N/A | +40000 | N/A | |
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![]() | +50000 | N/A | +75000 | +50000 | N/A | +15000 | |
![]() | +50000 | N/A | N/A | +50000 | N/A | N/A | |
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How to Win NFL MVP
So you want to win NFL MVP -- or if you're reading this, you want to corretly bet the NFL MVP? Here's how to do it:
The Positions
Does the award gravitate toward a certain position?
This is a quarterback award, unless a running back posts an insane season.
The last time a non-QB or RB won was Lawrence Taylor in 1986. Kicker Mark Moseley won in the strike-shortened 1982 season, which is hilarious. DT Alan Page won in 1971. Those are the only three non-quarterbacks or running backs.
A wide receiver has never won.
And 10 of the 18 running backs that did win happened before 1980.
It's a quarterback award.
The Voting
How does the voting work?
Who votes: A nationwide panel of media votes on the award. The NFL uses the AP's award as its official one, though several other outlets also give it out.
How many votes: Voters pick one player, so there are only 50 total ballots.
When do they vote? End of the regular season.
Any voting biases? It doesn't seem like it.
How many players get votes? Very few. Just 30 total players have received a vote in the past 10 years, and in many years, it's just two players. There isn't a ton of controversy around the winner.
The Narrative
Does a player need some "positive narrative" in their favor to win?
Not really. It's mostly about on-field performance.
The player doesn't have to be loved by the media. Nor does he need to have a feel-good story. Aaron Rodgers has won twice in a row after all.
The "carrying the team on his back" narrative can help a bit, if the perception is that the player brought the team much further than expected with little help around him.
Adrian Peterson for example helped get the Vikings to the postseason in 2012 with the second-most rushing yards ever in a season. Christian Ponder was their quarterback.
The Stats
What kinds of stats do voters care about?
Stats very much matter.
But the weird thing is that touchdowns (and TD/INT ratio) seem to matter the most.
Advanced stats like QBR seem somewhat predictive of the winner, but voters for most awards are focused on raw, easily quantifiable stats like TDs and INTs.
Passing yards don't seem to matter quite as much either, as long as the quarterback is among the league leaders.
Past NFL MVPs
MVP | Year |
Lamar Jackson | 2023-24 |
Patrick Mahomes | 2022-23 |
Aaron Rodgers | 2021-22 |
Aaron Rodgers | 2020-21 |
Lamar Jackson | 2019-20 |
Patrick Mahomes | 2018-19 |
Tom Brady | 2017-18 |
Matt Ryan | 2016-17 |
Cam Newton | 2015-16 |
Aaron Rodgers | 2014-15 |
Peyton Manning | 2013-14 |
Adrian Peterson | 2012-13 |
Aaron Rodgers | 2011-12 |
Tom Brady | 2010-11 |
Peyton Manning | 2009-10 |
Peyton Manning | 2008-09 |
Tom Brady | 2007-08 |
LaDainian Tomlinson | 2006-07 |
Shaun Alexander | 2005-06 |
Peyton Manning | 2004-05 |
Peyton Manning | 2003-04 |
Steve McNair | 2003-04 |
Rich Gannon | 2002-03 |
Kurt Warner | 2001-02 |
Marshall Faulk | 2000-01 |