The New England Patriots (1-1) face the New York Jets (1-1) on Thursday Night Football to kick off NFL Week 3 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. The game is streaming exclusively on Prime Video.
New York is a 6-point favorite with the game total set at 38.5. The Jets are -275 favorites on the moneyline, while the Patriots are +225 to pull off the upset. For my NFL prediction, I would look toward the over/under more than the spread or moneyline.
New England suffered its first loss of the season last week, falling to the Seahawks at home in overtime. Jacoby Brissett has done his job and avoided mistakes, with the focus of the Patriots offense being on getting Rhamondre Stevenson the ball and thriving on the ground. The Jets are coming off of their first win of the season over the Titans. Breece Hall has been the go-to guy offensively so far, while rookie running back Braelon Allen found the end zone twice against Tennessee.
Let's get into my Patriots vs. Jets predictions for my NFL picks and predictions for Thursday Night Football Week 3.
Patriots vs. Jets Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -108 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -112 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -278 |
- Patriots vs. Jets spread: Jets -6
- Patriots vs. Jets over/under: 38.5 points
- Patriots vs. Jets moneyline: Jets -275, Patriots +225
- Patriots vs. Jets pick: Under 38.5
My Jets vs. Patriots best bet is on the under at 38.5. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
I have no pick on the spread for tonight's matchup.
Moneyline
I'm not betting the moneyline either.
Over/Under
Both teams are likely to lean on their run game on a short week, but injuries on the Patriots offensive line and key players on the Jets defense make it unclear how effective New England will be. This will be crucial to keeping the game close and avoiding a pass-heavy game script. If the Patriots can manage this, it should help keep the game under 38.5 points.
This is not an official bet, but I would lean toward the under more than any other play on the spread or total in this game.
Jets vs. Patriots Prediction: Under 38.5
Thursday Night Football Week 3
When the Patriots Have the Ball
Under new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, the Patriots offense has been extremely run-heavy with a -9.1% PROE (Pass Rate Over Expected) that ranks 25th in the league. New England isn't hiding its inclination to run either, using six or more offensive linemen on an NFL-high 26 plays this season and running the ball on 25 of those snaps. It makes sense for the Patriots to continue leaning on the run as they face the Jets, who boast one of the best secondaries in the league.
Jacoby Brissett has been under pressure on 44% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league, while the Jets have generated the highest pressure rate (44%). To complicate things, Patriots left tackle Vederian Lowe and left guard Sidy Sow have been ruled out. While rookies Caeden Wallace and Michael Jordan will step in, I don’t expect a significant dropoff. It’s still not ideal for a team that frequently utilizes formations with six or more linemen, especially given its thin depth on a short week.
The Jets have also taken some hits. Edge rusher Jermaine Johnson (Achilles) is out for the season, Haason Reddick remains in a holdout and Leki Fotu is still on injured reserve. To add to their woes, LB C.J. Mosley (toe) hasn’t practiced this week and will be a game-time decision.
Expect the Patriots to rely heavily on the run game with Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson to limit Brissett’s dropbacks against this formidable Jets pass rush and avoid challenging their stingy secondary.
When the Jets Have the Ball
Unlike Brissett, Aaron Rodgers should have a fairly clean pocket on Thursday Night Football. The Jets offensive line has been performing well, with Rodgers facing pressure on only 25% of his dropbacks, which is the fifth-lowest rate in the league. On the other hand, the Patriots have struggled to generate pressure, with a 24% pressure rate, which is third lowest in the league.
That said, Rodgers has shown some rust after missing nearly all of 2023 due to an Achilles tear and entering his age-41 season. His completion percentage is 9% lower than expected, and his average intended air yards is just 5.4 yards downfield, the third-lowest rate among qualified QBs. This indicates that the Jets may continue to rely on a more conservative approach, favoring quick, short passes to complement their run game.
Expect the Jets to lean heavily on the ground attack, utilizing Breece Hall and impressive rookie Braelon Allen, while also incorporating short, efficient passes from Rodgers to move the chains.
Both offenses rank in the top 10 in punt rate per drive — New England is third and New York is seventh — which suggests we could be in for a Thursday night defensive struggle with few points on the board.
Patriots punter Bryce Baringer has been outstanding this season, averaging 53.8 yards per punt and pinning teams inside their own 20-yard line on 64% of his punts. He has the second-longest punt of the season (67 yards) and had the third-longest punt (79 yards) last season. When you're betting on an under, having strong punters like Baringer and Jets veteran Thomas Morstead is key.
Primetime unders have been a profitable trend over the past few seasons, and this matchup has all the makings of a low-scoring affair.
My projection is 37.5. I wish we had a bit more value here, though, so under 38.5 is just a lean for me.
Pick: Under 38.5
How to Watch Thursday Night Football
| Location: | MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. |
| Date: | Thursday, Sept. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Prime Video |
Jets vs. Patriots is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. The game will be broadcast and streamed live on Prime Video.
Betting Trends
- 48% of bets and 63% of the money are on the Jets to cover the spread.
- 68% of bets and 53% of the money are on the over.
- 79% of bets and 61% of the money on the moneyline are on the Jets.
NFL Weather
