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Sean Koerner's Picks
Today
W.Reichard o1.5 FGs Made-120
WAS
@
MIN
0.6u
12/07 6:00 PM
Has yet to miss a kick this year that hasn’t hit a wire/cable. Projecting closer to a 60% chance he gets 2+
172
B.Hall o69.5 Rush Yds-118
MIA
@
NYJ
0.59u
12/07 6:00 PM
Projecting him closer to 75.5 with around a 59% chance he clears 69.5
255
T.Spears u21.5 Rush Yds-115
TEN
@
CLE
0.58u
12/07 6:00 PM
Projecting him closer to 18.5 with around a 60% chance to stay under 21.5
192
A.Barner Anytime TD Scorer Yes+250
SEA
@
ATL
0.2u
12/07 6:00 PM
He’s the ball carrier in their version of the Tush Push and has been incredibly effective with a 89% success rate (highest for any player with at least 5+ carries) + he’s the lead pass catching TE. They let him get a rush TD at the goal-line a few weeks ago and I would expect maybe 1-2 more of those for him over the final several weeks. Still think the market is a bit behind in his sneaky upside in this market right now. Projecting him closer to +180
202
K.Elliss u8.5 Tackles + Ast-131
SEA
@ATL
0.66u
12/07 6:00 PM
He’s stayed under this number 67% of the time this year. Elliss has rushed the passer 131 times this year which tops LBs and takes him out of tackle opps a LB would typically see, plus he’s been good in coverage. Seattle has been a below average matchup for LBs too. Projecting him closer to 7.4 tackles and a 66% chance to stay under 8.5
81
M.Humphrey u4.5 Tackles + Ast-124
PIT
@
BAL
0.62u
12/07 6:00 PM
Coming off a massive 9 tackle game but that was on 80 snaps against the Bengals which is a great matchup for CBs. Expected to face way less volume here and Pit is terrible for CBs in terms of tackle opps and I’m expecting LB Roquan Smith to get the biggest boost from this matchup. Projecting this closer to 4.1 with around a 61% chance to stay under 4.5
80
J.Bech o21.5 Rec Yds-110
DEN
@
LV
0.55u
12/07 9:05 PM
Bech has had a very disappointing rookie season, but it’s usually not smart to completely write off a 2nd round WR 12 games into their career. I wasn’t expecting Bech to do much up to this point anyway. But with Thornton and Mayer ruled out for this game I’m expecting him to see a massive increase in usage here. Projecting him closer to 25.5 with around a 58% chance to clear 21.5
212
L.Burden o3.5 Recs-119
CHI
@
GB
0.6u
12/07 9:25 PM
After losing his rec yards prop in brutal fashion last week by 0.5 yard, I’m going to stick with the market I think suits him better anyway. When evaluating rookie WRs, it’s always important to look at both talent and landing spot. Tet McMillan and Emeka Egbuka were two of the top WRs of this year’s class and landed in ideal situations to produce right away. Both benefited from trades or injuries that elevated their usage even more.
Burden, on the other hand, was a fringe 1st round talent who landed in a very crowded room of pass catchers with limited passing yards to go around. That was always going to make him easy to overlook. I’m not saying he’s the same talent as CeeDee Lamb or JSN, but I’ve pointed out he could have a similar career arc where he starts behind 2+ established WRs, then eventually sees a production jump as injuries happen or the team moves on from someone like DJ Moore.
He recently passed Olamide Zaccheus to become the team’s #3 WR, but he has still been topping out around a 60–65% routes-run rate. With Rome Odunze ruled out this week, we could see his first game in a more full-time role, potentially 80%+ routes, and with one fewer high-end WR to compete for targets with. This is the type of stretch where I’m expecting Burden to show more of a true breakout.
The matchup is brutal, but the Bears may be forced to throw at a higher rate, and they clearly want to find ways to get the ball in his hands, as we saw with the pop-pass look last week. This is the better market to invest in his upside, and I’m projecting him closer to a 62% chance to clear 3.5 receptions.
243
K.Byard u6.5 Tackles + Ast-123
CHI
@GB
0.62u
12/07 9:25 PM
Proj closer to 5.9 with around a 62% chance to stay under 6.5
86
Pending
Futures
Matthew Stafford o22.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.57u
Discussed this on The Favorites
70
Cooper Kupp u700.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
1.14u
87
Javonte Williams u525.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1.15u
48
Jared Verse o7.5-135
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
1.35u
49
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.55u |
| Last 7 Days | 9-6-0 | 60% | 1.19u |
| Last 30 Days | 35-31-0 | 53% | 0.77u |
| All Time | 1985-1599-31 | 55% | 230.82u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1159-915-19 | 55% | 137.40u |
| MLB | 298-247-4 | 54% | 42.72u |
| NCAAB | 262-211-3 | 55% | 28.30u |
| WNBA | 147-118-3 | 55% | 19.47u |
| NCAAF | 36-24-2 | 58% | 6.09u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| Golf | 0-3-0 | 0% | -0.60u |
| NBA | 78-74-0 | 51% | -2.77u |
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Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.
Specialties
- NFL
- College football
- College basketball
- Player projections
- Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point