We recently approached our sponsor, bet365, with a request: Grant us an underdog moneyline parlay with an odds boost this season.
Much to everyone's delight, they agreed. So, on a weekly basis, we will present a two-team moneyline underdog parlay. bet365 has committed to spotlighting this on their site all weekend.
For your first week, keep an out for the highlighted boosted underdog parlay at around +500 on bet365 and prepare to see Bryce Young's Panthers triumphing over the Saints and Anthony Richardson's Colts defeating the Texans. Well, at least in an ideal world.
Now, let's dive into the analysis for the teams in question.
NFL Week 1 Parlay: Panthers ML (+165) & Colts ML (+125)
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -115 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -105 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
The reason why everybody at Action Network is all over the Panthers is partially because of their Luck Ranking factors from last season. They lost a lot of games because of simply bad coaching, as well.
Frank Reich was fired in the middle of the season, and everything went against Carolina. There were unlucky turnovers and plenty of plays that simply bounced the wrong way against the Panthers last season.
With that, we're expecting a lot of those things to regress back to the mean for them this season.
People don't understand how well new Panthers head coach Dave Canales has done over the past two seasons. He was in Seattle in 2022 as Geno Smith's quarterback coach when the veteran had the best season of his career, and he also resurrected Baker Mayfield last season as the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay.
Now, it's Young's turn. We're all investing a lot in a regression of the mean for Carolina's luck, as well as what Canales can do as a coach. We're investing in improvements on the Panthers' offensive line, as well as with Young's pass-catchers.
That starts in Week 1 with an upset over the Saints.
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
Everybody and their cousin appears to be on the Texans this week. Sportsbooks have gone as far as to say their Sundays will be decided by this game. The public is on Houston, so the books need Indianapolis.
We're going a step further here and betting the Colts moneyline at a plus number for this parlay.
Anthony Richardson is an unknown, having started just 17 games between college and the NFL. He's up against C.J. Stroud, who we all saw thrive in the latter part of last season.
This is where I want to be, aligned with the sportsbooks against the public. Houston is coming off an impressive end to last season and is a popular pick to take the next step.
Not this week, though, baby. We're backing Indy.
