Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinal matchup between the Devils and Hurricanes will happen tonight in Raleigh at PNC Arena.
The Devils were not prepared for Carolina's ferocious forecheck and neutral zone pressure early in Game 1, but they did seem to adjust and settle in as the matchup wore on.
My belief is that we could see the Devils bounce back and hang around in this matchup.
Generating much on the Hurricanes is a very tall task, though, and by no means does it seem likely that a better Devils performance will result in a win.
What seems likely is that this game will hold a relatively close score line throughout, and it ultimately could go past regulation.
That's the idea behind our long-shot parlay priced at +2200 on bet365.
Single Game Parlay: Devils vs. Hurricanes
The Parlay (+2200 at bet365):
- Regulation Tie
- Frederik Andersen Over 25.5 Saves
- Nico Hischier Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
- Jack Hughes Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
- Brent Burns Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
- Martin Necas Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Regulation Tie
This selection is the key to our whole single-game parlay. Shots on goal and saves coming past regulation will count, and I believe there's a better than suggested chance this game sneaks into what could be a potentially lengthy overtime period.
If it does, it opens the door for our plethora of shot props to hit.
If you wanted to really get wild and target multiple periods of overtime by adding even more shooters — and perhaps even some shot-block overs as well — I think this is a decent spot to try some punts.
It's well known that playing elite defensive hockey with minimal mistakes is the key to success for the Hurricanes right now, as they have been gutted of several top finishing talents due to injury.
The Canes finished first in goals against per 60 in the regular season and have been dominant on that front in the playoffs, with a 2.58 xGA/60.
The Hurricanes' lack of elite finishing talent can often result in closely-fought, nail-biting contests. That was the case against the Islanders in the first round, when two of the six games snuck into overtime and four were settled by a single goal margin.
New Jersey is no defensive slouch itself, and it'll likely play a sharper contest in tonight's matchup.
The Devils were the eighth-best defensive team in the league this season by expected goals. In the playoffs, they've played to a third-best 2.23 xGA/60 through six games.
This sets up as a spot where I believe both teams will play at a high level. Typically when neither side offers much in the way of defensive lapses, what we have is a closer score line.
If things remain knotted up late, finding a breakthrough could be very tough.
Backing this game to go to overtime at +320 is a very reasonable look, and I feel it's a good way to kick off our parlay.
Frederik Andersen Over 25.5 Saves
New Jersey can push the pace and generate shots with the best of them.
While that seems counterintuitive to our take that Carolina will play a stout defensive contest, that's not necessarily true. Often times good defense doesn't mean limited shot volume but instead, the chances on goal are pressured or are from the perimeter, resulting in less defensive breakdowns.
The more important part is the idea that we get extra minutes to cash this parlay if our regulation tie bet hits, as needed.
At a low number of 25.5, I'm happy to include this, and if we get the overtime leg correct, this should be pretty safe.
Nico Hischier Over 2.5 Shots on Goal, Jack Hughes Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
There's really not a need for two separate write-ups here on our two Devils shooters, so I will combine the two.
In these playoffs, Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes have been the most consistent Devils shooters in terms of volume, with 24 and 33 shots, respectively, through eight games.
If the Devils hang around in this game, both will be key to victory and will probably have broken through with some offensive production.
There's no need to look away from the two chalkiest Devils shooters when we are targeting this hard-fought overtime game script.
Brent Burns Over 3.5 Shots on Goal, Martin Necas Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
The same logic applies here with our two Hurricanes shooters.
Both Brent Burns and Martin Necas have been extremely consistent targets in the shot prop market this postseason, and if we see this game sneak into overtime, these will have an excellent chance of hitting.
Burns is putting forth a ridiculous amount of attempts on goal, both on the man advantage and at even strength. He has put up 29 shots on goal this postseason and has cashed the over 3.5 in five of seven contests so far.
He disappointed many bettors in Game 1 by managing just two shots on target, but he did have six attempts on goal.
Maybe Burns will ultimately trend a little lower shots wise against a strong Devils defensive side, but I still believe we can trust him enough to make the cut here.
Necas, on the other hand, could trend upwards if this series is slightly more open than the Hurricanes' battle with the Islanders. He put up three shots on goal in Game 1.
