Despite entering tonight's matchup in a three-game hole, Carolina has allowed next to nothing in front of the goal.
With its season on the line tonight, I'm targeting a similar game script, where the Canes own more of the overall play on Wednesday.
Check out my same game parlay for Hurricanes vs. Panthers Game 3 below, which includes picks for Carolina, Frederik Andersen and Matthew Tkachuk.
Same Game Parlay: Hurricanes vs. Panthers Game 4
The Parlay (+550 bet365)
- Frederik Andersen Under 27.5 Saves
- Sam Bennett Under 3.5 Shots on Goal
- Sebastian Aho Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
- Under 6.5 Goals
Frederik Andersen Under 27.5 Saves
The Hurricanes' traditionally dominant defensive play has remained impeccable in this series. They have allowed just 19.66 shots on goal per game in regulation and a xGA/60 of 2.17.
Florida scored zero goals at even strength in Game 3 and generated next to nothing. Even with Carolina taking a surprisingly high total of five minor penalties, the Panthers were able to manage just 17 shots on goal.
Florida likely will find a way to get some more shots on target at even strength in this game, but it's also likely Carolina will not take five minor penalties again.
Under 27.5 saves for Andersen is a great bet to start off our parlay.
Sam Bennett Under 3.5 Shots on Goal
For the logic outlined above, it doesn't make much sense to back Panthers shooters in this matchup when they're trending so well below average in terms of shots and shot attempts.
Backing a Panthers shooter to go under makes sense with our Andersen bet, and Bennett seems to have one of the most inflated totals.
Bennett has put up 13 shots on goal in the first three contests of this series. That's actually a positive note for our under look here.
Game 1 went four overtimes and Bennett still put up only four shots. In Game 3, Bennett put up three shots, even after taking on more minutes than usual with top center Aleksander Barkov injured and Florida receiving five powerplays.
Barkov is set to play tonight, which will cut into Bennett's usage.
If Carolina can reduce the amount of penalties taken tonight, that would also help our cause.
Sebastian Aho Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
One of the more noticeable Hurricanes in this series has been Sebastian Aho, whose strong play has been hidden by an inability to finish chances off.
Coach Rod Brind'Amour will likely lean on his best forward heavily in this do-or-die matchup.
Aho had eight shot attempts in Game 3 and managed five shots on goal.
Aho, Seth Jarvis and Stefan Noesen will likely be able to generate tons of offensive zone time again in this matchup.
Over 2.5 shots on goal in a game script where Carolina carries much of the play should be fairly safe.
Under 6.5 Goals
Between Carolina's spectacular defensive play and Sergei Bobrovsky's otherworldly dominance, goals have been very hard to come by in this series.
In the opening three matchups, there's been an average of just 3.5 goals per game.
There's no doubt Carolina is due for better luck in front of goal, but betting this one to stay under 6.5 should be very safe.
