Game 1 of what should be an incredible series between the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers is set for tonight. The NHL playoff game presents a number of interesting looks that should allow us to debut our new NHL Playoffs same game parlay piece in strong fashion.
Here is my favorite SGP option, which prices out at +325 on Bet365 at the time of writing. I've also got an alternative +2500 long shot to sprinkle in as well.
FanDuel will likely post these with similar prices, so keep your eyes out there if you are a FanDuel user hoping to get in on the action.
Same-Game Parlay: Kings vs. Oilers
The Parlay (+325)
- Connor McDavid over 3.5 shots on goal
- Adrian Kempe over 2.5 shots on goal
- Matt Roy over 1.5 blocked shots
Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
After Connor McDavid’s incredible and highly profiled regular season, this pick doesn’t even really need a write-up. But I will do it anyways.
McDavid is the best player on the planet, and after an offseason in which his main focus was his shot, he came out and led the league with 64 goals. Over the last 12 games, he has averaged 4.3 shots on goal and cashed the “over” seven of 12 times.
Los Angeles is an elite side at preventing even-strength attempts on goal, and McDavid will face tough matchups all night long. Those are the concerns here, and that’s why this number is still hanging around where it is.
However, I believe it is also fair to say McDavid will find another gear this postseason, as he did last year when he put up 10 goals and 33 points in 16 playoff games while averaging 23 minutes on ice a night. He also averaged 3.81 shots per game last year in tough matchups versus the Kings, Flames and Avalanche.
And again, this year he clearly has more of a shot-first mindset, as encouraged by superstar teammate Leon Draisaitl.
Adrian Kempe Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Adrian Kempe enters in strong form after recording a hat trick in Los Angeles' final game against Anaheim, which pushed him past the 40-goal plateau.
He put up 33 shots on goal in seven games versus the Oilers last playoffs, and he was a noticeable force throughout the series.
Kempe becomes the primary shooter on Los Angeles' strong top power play with Kevin Fiala sidelined, and he should see bigger minutes if the Kings end trailing as an underdog on the road Monday. He averaged 3.02 shots on goal this season, and I believe tonight is a good spot to target him playing to that average.
Matt Roy Over 1.5 Shots Blocked
As the games become tighter and more meaningful, we typically see shot block averages rise. I expect that to be the case from Los Angeles' shutdown defensive pairing of Matt Roy and Vladislav Gavrikov, which also doubles as the Kings' top penalty-killing unit.
Roy blocked 2.11 shots per game over the final 15 regular season games. I would bank on that average rising throughout this series versus an Edmonton side generating a lot of attempts, and with a dominant power play.
Roy cashed the over 1.5 in all seven playoff games versus the Oilers last season. I think that is that was no anomaly, and oddsmakers are not respecting how his numbers should be affected come playoff time.
If FanDuel opens a line on Vladislav Gavrikov with drastically better odds for over 1.5 blocks, he could also be a worthy pivot.
Bonus SGP +2500
- Connor McDavid over 3.5 shots on goal
- Adrian Kempe over 2.5 shots on goal
- Matt Roy over 1.5 blocked shots
- Viktor Arvidsson over 3.5
- Regulation tie
Here's a little super long-shot alternative to look at for a much smaller stake.
As noted in our NHL Best Bets for tonight, I believe this game has a strong chance of sneaking into overtime, which on Bet365 would also help shot props. (FanDuel is running SGP shot props inside of 60 minutes only.)
Viktor Arvidsson is another beneficiary usage-wise with Kevin Fiala sidelined, as he moves up to the Kings' top power-play unit. He has been trending past 3.5 shots with an average of 4.04 over his last 21 games, and this is my third-favorite shot target in this matchup.
