Check out my same game parlay for Kraken vs. Stars Game 7 (8 p.m. ET, ESPN), including picks for Jared McCann, Roope Hintz and the total.
Same Game Parlay: Kraken vs. Stars
The Parlay (+375 at bet365)
- Game Total Under 6.5
- Roope Hintz Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
- Jared McCann Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Alternative Total Under 6.5
Through the opening six matchups, this series has been more high scoring than anybody would have expected. Over bets have cruised to a 6-0 record, and the series has averaged 8.16 goals per game.
That leads us to a standard betting total of six in Game 7.
The high scoring nature of this series is noteworthy, but that's being accounted for with a total of six. Entering this matchup, many might have even predicted a Game 7 to have a total of five, as opposed to 5.5.
Since 2005, Game 7s have gone 40-26-9 to the under with a 11.2% ROI.
There's some logical causation towards that trend. NHL players and coaches are geared towards thinking conservatively. The top concern in these crucial do-or-die matchups is always to play with a strong defensive structure and avoid mistakes.
Goals in the NHL come more often from team breakdowns in front of the goal, as opposed to being from offensive players coming through with a moment of brilliance.
Those defensive miscues tend to dry up in Game 7s. There likely won't be much in the way of odd-man rushes in tonight's matchup, and I wouldn't count on many powerplays, either.
One of the greatest reasons for the high scoring in this series has been the middling play of Stars netminder Jake Oettinger. Oettinger rates as one of the best goalies in the league, yet has been a letdown at times. By no means did Dallas insulate him well in Game 6, either.
It's logical to think he can bring a better performance in Game 7 tonight and that Dallas can offer him better defensive play.
Seattle was sharp defensively in its 2-1 win over Colorado in Game 7 of the first round. It's fair to believe in the Kraken bringing a sharp effort tonight, and I expect that to mean a limited amount of high-quality looks for the Stars.
Moving the number to 6.5 lets us win even if the game ends with a 4-2 final, and as a result, I believe this is a safe way to kick off our parlay.
Roope Hintz Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
With 18 points in 12 games, Hintz has been the driving force behind the Dallas offense this postseason. He's been a dynamic offensive force, creating both off the rush and down low off of the cycle in the offensive zone.
He's put up 21 shots in six games against Seattle in a series that has featured an abnormal amount of blowouts.
Hintz has played only 20 minutes of ice time once in six matchups. Tonight will likely be a close, hard-fought affair, and a blowout for either side is bad news for our under 6.5 to begin with.
We can count on Hintz, Joe Pavelski and Jason Robertson playing well past their series average of time on the ice in most game scripts.
It's hard to find arguments as to why Hintz will have a letdown on Monday, so I see this as a fairly safe second leg.
Jared McCann Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
As long as McCann's shot total remains at 2.5 as opposed to 3.5, it holds some value. McCann has put up 10 shots on goal in his first three matchups since returning from injury. Those 10 shots have come on a total of 16 attempts.
That means he's not due for regression in terms of the amount of attempts actually hitting target, which is a positive.
Those averages have come with McCann being used in a fourth-line role, averaging just over 15 minutes of time on the ice in this series.
If tonight ends up being close, chances are Kraken coach Dave Hakstol finds a way to get his top scorer more ice time.
