The Panthers took care of business on home ice by earning a pair of victories in very different fashions. They leaned upon an all-world performance to best the Oilers in Game 1 but bounced back with a dominant defensive effort in a notably low-event Game 2. Both of those matchups hinged on a couple of close plays, and the Oilers may not need to change all that much to find a better result in Game 3.
Historically this spot heavily favors the Oilers; since 2005, teams priced as a favorite after losing two straight games in the Stanley Cup Final are 18-2 for a 53.7% ROI.
The trends tell us the Oilers will find a way in what is essentially a do-or-die game. An 0-2 hole is also not an accurate depiction of the series so far. Even still, it seems like -135 has a little too much "must-win" baked into it for me to see value on the moneyline.
I'd rather take a chance backing some of the Oilers' more logical paths to victory in the prop market.
Find my NHL Best Bets for Oilers vs Panthers Game 3, including prop picks for Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard, below.
NHL Best Bets: Oilers vs Panthers Game 3 Predictions
Evan Bouchard is wearing a ton of heat for his hideous turnover on the Panthers' go-ahead goal in Game 2, and rightfully so. When someone plays 30 minutes and handles the puck more than any other skater while trying to make plays which actually help drive possession, this is drastically more common.
Evan Rodrigues takes advantage of a tough turnover by Evan Bouchard to take a 2-1 leadđ˛ pic.twitter.com/ZXbgbZdDew
â The Hockey Writers (@TheHockeyWriter) June 11, 2024
Bouchard has been prone to this type of mistake throughout his career, which makes it easy to forget that the Oilers are absolutely crushing their opponents when he is on the ice overall. In 328.9 minutes together of play at even strength this postseason, Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm have played to a 59.2% Expected Goal Share and own an Actual Goal Share far above 59%.
If you're still a believer in +/-, Bouchard is +12 in the playoffs, and that doesn't factor in that he's one of the best power-play skaters in the league.
So by all means, expect another time-on-ice total near 30 minutes from Bouchard in tonight's game as the Oilers look to win what is essentially a do-or-die game, particularly given Darnell Nurse's injury situation.
Arguably more than any other Oilers skater, Bouchard has been getting his usual amount of chances offensively in the series. He's had 25 shot attempts, 10 unblocked attempts and hit a post on a clean power-play look in Game 2. He should continue to get looks on the man advantage tonight.
Bouchard will also benefit from the Oilers owning last change in this matchup because Kris Knoblauch should be aggressive in handing his top defensive pairing offensive-zone starts versus weaker Panthers skaters.
+470 is a great number to back Bouchard to notch his seventh goal of the playoffs on Thursday.
Pick: Evan Bouchard Anytime Goalscorer +470 (FanDuel | Play to +400)
It's a popular take entering this game that the game's best player will breakthrough with a more productive performance, and I'm sure all of McDavid's overs will be among the most-bet props once again in tonight's game.
One prop that looks particularly appealing is backing McDavid to record a single power-play point at -120. The Oilers have earned a lot of power-play time in this series so far, and I don't think that will change in tonight's matchup. The Panthers are going to continue trying to play the Oilers' superstars as physically as possible and will always walk a thin line in terms of doing so without being penalized.
The Oilers' power play has been right there. Their puck movement looked excellent in Game 2, and if either of their two posts on the same power play scored while the game was tied at 1, the narrative might have been how the man-advantage unit stole them another game.
I'll bet the breakthrough happens tonight for the Oilers power play, and at -120, we have the right number for the inevitable breakthrough to involve McDavid.
Pick: Connor McDavid Over 0.5 Power-play Points -120 (bet365/DraftKings | Play to -125):
