The Panthers blew their first opportunity to secure the franchise's first Stanley Cup victory as they played their worst defensive game of the playoffs in an 8-1 loss Saturday.
Sergei Bobrovsky stopped just 11-of-16 shots, which caused his Conn Smythe Trophy odds to change from -500 to -105.
Florida will now have the opportunity to win the Cup on home ice. The latest Oilers vs. Panthers odds have Florida favored to close out the series tonight (8 p.m. ET, ABC & ESPN+), and I'm counting on its league-best defensive play being a main story.
Find my NHL Best Bets for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 5, including a first-period total and a pick on the Conn Smythe winner.
NHL Best Bets: Oilers vs Panthers Game 5 Picks
One of the main questions is whether the Oilers' offense will be able to follow up its Game 4 performance and if they have shaken Bobrovsky's confidence after chasing him in the second period.
While the Oilers likely could have had a few more goals in the series without Bobrovsky's otherworldly play or with higher-quality finishing, it was still abundantly clear that Florida played it's worst defensive game of the series in Game 4.
If the Panthers bounce back defensively tonight, don't expect Bobrovsky to struggle.
In the series, the Oilers own a 51.96% expected goal share and have generated 29.85 shots per 60. Expected goals data tracks the location of a shot, but misses other intricacies that help to fully encapsulate the true danger. Many of the Oilers shots in Games 1-3 were pressured, and not necessarily complete breakdowns.
It seems likely that the Panthers will clean up their defensive game in this spot, as they have rightfully earned their reputation as the league's best defensive team. Their 2.82 xGA/60 in the regular season ranked third and their 2.41 GAA ranked first.
The Oilers haven't allowed many scoring chances against and, on paper, their defensive play looks solid in this series. Stuart Skinner has been fine and was sharp when needed in Game 4. The Oilers blue-liners have offered up critical breakdowns in the worst possible areas, which allowed the Panthers to outscore their expected totals in Games 1-3.
If the Oilers can make simple plays and avoid disastrous mistakes below the goal line, the Panthers even-strength attack could start to look fairly subdued. Keeping the Panthers' attack in check also looks to be an easier task right now because Matthew Tkachuk has looked non-threatening offensively in this series.
In the NHL playoffs, the later games in a series consistently feature lower totals. This looks like another good chance to bet into that trend. At -120, there is value in betting the first period to go Under 1.5 total goals.
Best Bet: First Period Under 1.5 (-120) (Bet365, Play to -125)
Listeners of Action Network's Line Change Podcast know Aleksander Barkov was one of the picks I gave out prior to the postseason, as well as one game into the second round.
Therefore, I have paid plenty of attention to the Conn Smythe odds throughout this series. By no means is Bobrovsky my preferred winner, and I personally still believe Barkov is the most deserving because of the gap he created entering this series for an award that is supposed to be based off four rounds.
However, at this point in time, Bobrovsky's chances of winning seem to be a little undervalued at -105, which is why I feel comfortable recommending this bet regardless of whether you have a piece of Barkov. This price looks to be an overreaction to Bobrovsky's ugly Game 4, which swung the odds from -500 to -105.
While a productive night from Barkov would be meaningful in this race, it seems more probable that the Panthers win a low-scoring game and Bobrovsky garners more of the credit.
Best Bet: Sergei Bobrovsky Conn Smythe (-105 at bet365) | Play to -115
