Monday's NHL slate features one game, with the Vegas Golden Knights taking on the Edmonton Oilers at Rogers Place. Even though there are fewer games than usual, there are plenty of player props with value on the odds board.
Check out Nick Martin's NHL best bets and player props for Monday, May 8, as the Stanley Cup Playoffs continue.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Edmonton Oilers
| Pick | Shea Theodore Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+146) · Any Time Goal Scorer (+700) |
| Book | FanDuel |
| Puck Drop | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
The Oilers had one of their worst games at even strength in months in Game 1. Something similar could be said about Vegas' performance in Game 2.
Chances are the Golden Knights will bring a better performance tonight and find a way to generate more chances at even strength. If they do, offensive-minded defender Shea Theodore seems to be a likely candidate to lead the way.
Theodore played to an 82% expected goal share in Game 2, the best mark of any Knights defender. If Vegas can avoid going shorthanded as often in this matchup, the case is clear that Theodore deserves heavy usage.
The Knights have taken 10 minor penalties in the first two games of this series. They've been awarded nine man-advantage situations themselves. That's far more time being spent by one team on the power play than the NHL average.
It's likely that tonight's contest will feature less time away from the regular five-on-five game state. Most important to this bet is the idea that Vegas will be very focused on giving Edmonton's power play time to work.
Theodore has put up 14.49 shot attempts per 60 this postseason, which ranks fourth on the Knights. He has attempted 12 shots on goal in the opening two games and has an excellent ability to jump up in the rush and join the attack. He has had a relatively quiet postseason, but the signs of a breakout have been there early in this series.
Considering his attempt-on-goal average in two negative game scripts to open the series, +146 is a strong number to back over 2.5 shots on goal.
Theodore is also more competent at finishing offensive chances than we've seen lately. As a result, I believe +700 to score at any time is a little too juicy to pass up.
| Pick | Jonathan Marchessault Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-140) |
| Book | DraftKings |
| Puck Drop | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Vegas' top line of Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev and Marchessault continues to spend a lot of time in the offensive zone creating attempts on goal. They've played to a 68.3% xGoals rating this postseason and have generated 4.15 xGoals per 60.
Marchessault leads the Knights with 11.4 shots on goal per 60 this playoffs. He also leads the team with 19.9 shot attempts per 60. In this series alone, he has put up 11 shots in the first two games.
As noted when we played this Saturday, Vegas has had the luxury of playing with the lead most of the time this playoff. That hurts a top scorer like Marchessault's usage because coach Bruce Cassidy is in situations where he's happy to roll all four offensive lines evenly.
Marchessault skated 19:57 as the Knights pushed for offense in Game 2. If they trail early on tonight, he should finish with more usage than usual again.
Marchessault is a shot-minded skater playing on a top line that's achieving strong results. His averages make the case that he could be priced closer to Eichel on this market.
By the end of the series, it's entirely possible we see Marchessault with a shot prop back up at 3.5, where it was much of this season. I believe -140 is still a very strong price to back the over at 2.5.
