Here are my NHL best bets tonight with my favorite picks and predictions for the Thursday, March 7 hockey slate.
The NHL odds board features betting options for a full slate of 12 games today.
Check out my NHL best bets and top picks below.
(Hockey fans: Get ready for the launch of North Carolina sports betting on March 11! Get the latest news here.)
NHL Best Bets Tonight | Picks for Thursday, March 7
Capitals coach Spencer Carbery has done an excellent job of instilling structured team play in his side this season. He has continually been dealing injuries and roster absences all season long, but he has effectively plugged and played. The Capitals do not have much in the way of strong NHL talent at this point, but they have a roster stacked with playable skaters and arguably the best AHL roster to pull from.
At 6-3-2 over their last 11, the Capitals have been a profitable bet considering where the prices have been. They have played to a 51% Expected Goal Share in that time, and to the eye, they have looked sharp aside from ugly losses to Arizona and Detroit.
Losing Anthony Mantha undoubtedly hurts, but that will still allow a highly talented young player in Ivan Miroshnichenko to crack the lineup. Wingers such as Tom Wilson, Sonny Milano and Max Pacioretty can also help pick up the slack.
They will also be without Joel Edmundson on the back end, who was traded away to Toronto this morning. That absence is going to be overvalued from a replacement-value perspective. The Capitals had seven competent NHL defenders on the roster prior to the trade, and he wasn't playing at a notably high level by any means.
The Penguins could end up with some pieces moving out of the lineup prior to this game as well. If not, I still can't agree with them being this large of a favorite based upon their recent play.
The Penguins enter this matchup in the midst of a 5-7-1 run of play, which has essentially ended any hopes of a playoff berth. Their 50.86 xGF% in that span ranks below the Capitals, and the eye test would tell you that defensively the Penguins are currently a lesser side.
Yes, Pittsburgh does have some elite talents to lean on right now, which the Capitals do not. With Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel both out of the lineup, the Penguins' depth is considerably lesser than that of the Capitals, even after this week's trades. Drew O'Connor is also likely to miss this contest and has been one of the Penguins' more competent forwards.
It makes sense to see these teams owning a similar amount of the overall play recently. The Capitals are not about to drop off as badly as this price and some observers seem to think.
There is a good chance the Capitals hang around here and make this rivalry matchup competitive. I think +142 is too long of a price and would bet anything better than +130.
Best Bet: Capitals Moneyline +142 (DraftKings | Play to +130)
With Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev both traded away ahead of the deadline, its a safe bet that MacKenzie Weegar will continue to see massive usage in the near future. He has played 25:51 and 25:33 on ice, respectively, over the last two games as he put up 15 Shot Attempts and 7 Shots on Goal in those two games.
Weegar transitioned back to his off side Tuesday against Seattle, as Calgary stacked its best two remaining defensemen on one top pairing. Weegar looks likely to remain with Rasmus Andersson at even strength for this matchup, and I view that as a boost to his shot projections.
Weegar has also taken over the quarterback role on Calgary's top powerplay recently, after often being used on the second unit.
The Lightning are a slightly worse than average target but not anything worse. They have allowed 28.56 shots against per 60 over the last 10 games, which is slightly better than league average.
I like Weegar to go over 2.5 Shots on Goal against the Lightning at -130 or better.
Best Bet: MacKenzie Weegar Over 2.5 Shots on Goal -125 (FanDuel | Play to -130)
