Here are my NHL best bets tonight with my favorite picks and predictions for the Saturday, March 9 hockey slate.
The NHL odds board features betting options for a full slate of 13 games today.
Check out my NHL best bets for Saturday below.
NHL Best Bets Tonight | Picks for Saturday, March 9
The Lightning continue to get a lot of credit for their preseason expectations, and for the dominant run they have been on over the last six seasons. The Flyers meanwhile are at the exact opposite end of the spectrum, as they continue to be written off based on the idea that this team was never supposed to be very good.
A manual evaluation of the Flyers play would tell you that they are in a whole different world defensively than the Lightning currently are. Generating high quality chances against versus the Flyers looks far tougher than it does versus the Lightning, who have allowed 3.42 goals against per game.
As we have gotten into the post All-Star break stretch run of the season, the Flyers have picked up their game. They have played to a record of 8-4-2. They own a 52.89 xGF% over that span. They traded away Sean Walker at deadline, and brought in Erik Johnson to help fill his loss.
There is no doubting that move downgrades the blue-line, but don't be surprised if John Tortorella finds a way to make the new look work. The Flyers back end will remain pretty beat up with notable injuries to Jamie Drysdale and Nick Seeler, but we saw them best the NHL leading Panthers with their make shift blue-line Thursday.
The Lightning own a record of just 6-7-1 since the All-Star Break. Their 49.40% expected goal rating suggests they are simply a league average team at this point. Steven Stamkos simply can't find his game, and the offensive core is far too reliant on all-world performances from Nikita Kucherov to survive.
They approached the deadline in a logical fashion, as they didn't mortgage their few remaining assets in favor of any significant names, but took high upside swings on Matt Dumba and Anthony Duclair. It remains to be seen if the moves actually raise the floor of the Lightning's struggling roster too badly.
Dumba has had a very difficult season in Arizona. The common thinking from many would be that getting off of such a bad team should help any player. Maybe that's true, but it's also important to note that the Coyotes have statistically been worse with Dumba on the ice this season than without.
The Lightning are going to respond to their humiliating 6-3 loss versus the Flames Thursday with a sharper performance. Still, we have seen a thorough case of how close these teams actually are this season. It feels like another reach on their prior history to make the Lightning -140 here, and I think +120 is a great price to back the scrappy Flyers yet again.
Pick: Flyers ML (+120 | Play to +115)
Hockey fans: Get ready for the launch of North Carolina sports betting on March 11! Get the latest news here.
The Stars continue to quietly be one of the leagues more high-event teams. They feature one of the leagues deepest offensive cores, but have often struggled to outscore modest goaltending. They play leg two of a back-to-back tonight versus a red-hot Kings team, and I think this one has a chance to be a sneaky barnburner.
With a total of only 6, I certainly do not mind a bet on the over. My favorite look lies with targeting Kevin Fiala though, who is one of the games most talented players and has found top form under Jim Hiller.
Over the last nine games Fiala has put up 13 points, and is averaging 3.6o shots on goal in that span.
He continues to earn past his season average of time on ice, and oddsmakers are having a hard time catching up to his current level prop wise. Fiala's talent level suggests this isn't just some outlier surge in terms of production and shots on goal, which makes me think it's still time to keep buying.
The Stars have struggled on the penalty kill recently, and are now closer to being a middle of the pack team with a 81.3% success rate this season. Fiala has been doing lots of damage on the man advantage over his hot streak, with a single power play point in five of his last nine.
He is priced at +270 on DraftKings to record a power play point, and I believe that is a long shot holding significant value. I also see some value backing him to record two points at +255.
Pick: Fiala Power Play Point (+270 | Play to +255), Fiala Over 1.5 Points (+255 | Play to +250)
