Here are my NHL best bets tonight with my favorite picks and predictions for the Saturday, March 16 hockey slate.
The NHL odds board features betting options for a full slate of 14 games today.
Check out my NHL best bets for Saturday below.
It looks relatively cut and dry that if the Hurricanes get league-average goaltending, they are right there with the Panthers as the Eastern Conference's best team. The true strength of Carolina's roster might even be greater than we are expecting, as Evgeny Kuznetsov has been surprisingly excellent since arriving in Carolina.
Kuznetsov, Martin Necas and Jake Guentzel broke through with two goals against Florida on Thursday, which was far from a fluke. In a tiny sample of just over 24 minutes together, the trio has combined to own an 85% expected goal rating, looking every bit as threatening as that number suggests.
We will likely see the Hurricanes line combinations look like this tonight, as Jack Drury is the only skater listed on the injury report:
- Andrei Svechnikov – Sebastian Aho – Teuvo Teravainen
- Jake Guentzel – Evgeny Kuznetsov – Martin Necas
- Jordan Martinook – Jordan Staal – Seth Jarvis
- Stefan Noesen – Jesperi Kotkaniemi – Jesper Fast
Carolina's top six offers two units with significant offensive upside and is still arguably an advantage for the Canes in this matchup because winger Mitch Marner will remain sidelined with a reported high ankle sprain. Center Calle Jarnkrok will also miss this matchup for the Leafs.
The Hurricanes' scoring upside currently looks at least on par with the Leafs, which nullifies what would typically be Toronto's advantage in this matchup. On the other side, as someone who consistently notes that the Leafs' defensive play is not as awful as all their haters love to suggest, it's still not anywhere close to that of the Hurricanes.
Coach Rod Brind'Amour won't have the last change to try and keep the Staal line head-to-head against Matthews, but otherwise, I couldn't care less that this game is in Toronto.
The Leafs have also displayed no home-ice advantage this season, at least not in terms of actual results. Their 18-12-2 record at home is worse than their 20-7-6 mark on the road. The Hurricanes' 18-11-2 mark on the road is worse than their mark in Raleigh, but it's still nothing that should scare us off backing them as a short road favorite.
Ilya Samsonov has put up a .912 save percentage and a 2.35 goals against average in 16 appearances since returning from his mental reset. Samsonov might have to be considered somewhat of an advantage over Canes' likely starter Frederik Andersen for the time being, although Andersen has obviously had a far more successful career.
It's hard for me to see why the Hurricanes aren't bigger favorites in this matchup. They'll probably get there, and I think for the time being -120 is an excellent price.
Best Bet: Hurricanes Moneyline -120 (Bet365, Play to -130)
The Stars' profile has entirely changed this season compared to their recent history. They are no longer a one-line show, looking to win close games behind elite goaltending and timely scoring. It has actually been the exact opposite.
Dallas features arguably the deepest offensive core in the league, with three lines producing at well above league-average rates. Once Mason Marchment tallies one more goal, seven of the Stars' top nine forwards will have at least 20 goals.
Over the last 15 games, the Stars have generated 3.61 expected goals for per 60 minutes, which ranks fourth in the league. That isn't an anomaly by any means and is simply the product of their offensive talent. Dallas' 2.68 expected goals against per 60 minutes in that same span is also a tremendous mark and part of the reason for the low betting total here.
However, the Stars' excellent defensive play continues to be undone by well-below-average goaltending from Jake Oettinger and Scott Wedgewood. The Stars may offer Oettinger a chance to regroup after a brutal night against the Devils on Thursday and give this start to Wedgewood, who has played to a -7.2 goals saved above expected rate (GSAx) and .900 save percentage across 29 appearances.
The Kings defend very effectively, with two goalies overachieving expectations while finishing chances at a well-below-expected rate. That combination is always going to lead to oddsmakers' betting totals coming in a little high and, as you might expect, they've been a profitable team to the under.
David Rittich has been confirmed as the Kings' starter between the pipes in this matchup. At age 31, he is offering what is by a decent margin his best NHL season. Goaltending is hard to project, but his +12.3 GSAx and .919 save percentage do seem like marks likely for regression.
We likely have seen the worst of things for the Kings offensively, too. Kevin Fiala has found another gear since the addition of Jim Hiller, and having Adrian Kempe healthy again will continue to add offensive punch. Pierre-Luc Dubois had a good game last night in Chicago. Who knows if he can follow it up but based on his potential, we likely won't see inferior play than we already have.
This total is set too low at a heavily juiced 5.5. I would play over 5.5 to -145 or over 6 to -110.
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