Here are my NHL best bets tonight, featuring my favorite picks and predictions for the Saturday, March 23, hockey slate.
The NHL odds board features betting options for a full slate of 11 games today.
Check out my NHL best bets for Saturday below.
| Oilers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 6.5 -115 / -105 | -140 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 6.5 -115 / -105 | +116 |
This game looks a lot like last Saturday's Leafs matchup against the Hurricanes. That game opened as a pick-em, and closed at Carolina -140. We cashed that ticket by the skin of our teeth, but still, I am fading the Leafs again tonight in a similar spot.
The Oilers are playing their first road game since March 10. Many of their best players, such as Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard and Warren Foegele are from Ontario and are returning home to play this nationally broadcasted game.
Toronto has reverse splits this season, and I believe there is actual causation to that trend. If you are not pricing home-ice advantage into the equation, the Oilers deserve to be far heavier favorites than the consensus -110's we saw around open. The market has since corrected, but if you can find -130, that is worthy of a smaller play.
Hopefully you saw me track my Oilers ML bet in the Action App when lines opened. If not, it's still notable that I like the Oilers to win because of a player prop I'm eyeing.
The big story in this game is that Hyman returns home to face his former side. He has a whopping 48 goals, two away from the 50-goal benchmark that is always a huge talking point in the NHL. Even the players are aware of it. That's makes a two-goal game from Hyman a popular prop; I actually think it's a square bet worth a look.
McDavid, who always brings his "A" game to Toronto, has been in completely ridiculous form of late. His otherworldly playmaking is always going to provide Hyman ample scoring opportunities. Regardless of how the Leafs try to defend that duo, taking away the kind of gritty net-front looks Hyman finds is difficult.
Hyman has put up 16 goals over the last 16 games. He has five multigoal games in that span, and he has gone over 3.5 shots on goal in 8-of-16 games. He's not going to score at that level moving forward, but I still think oddsmakers haven't fully caught up to how Hyman can produce in his current rolee.
What I'm doing is splitt a unit on three Hyman props. On FanDuel, he is priced at -102 to record over 3.5 shots, which I would stake the most on and play to -110. He is priced at +900 to record two goals, which is worthy of a smaller bet. He is also +1000 to be the last goalscorer of the game, which is a solid bet as I expect the Leafs to pull their goalie often — the Oilers would do their best to find Hyman if that happens.
Best Bets (all on FanDuel): Zach Hyman Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-102), Two Goals (+900), Last Goal (+1000)
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 6.5 +106 / -130 | +108 |
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 6.5 +106 / -130 | -130 |
The Lightning have been one of the NHL's most overvalued sides this season. Their reputation from back-to-back cup victories continues to supersede the holes on the current roster. They are currently enjoying a five-game winning streak in which they have averaged 5.4 goals per game. Suddenly, I'm seeing members of hockey media proclaim they are a contender again.
Anthony Duclair has been a good fit on the top line, which allows a more balanced look with Brandon Hagel on the second unit. Still, the Lightning have one of the more one-dimensional offenses in the league. Matt Dumba has also played respectably since arriving on the blue line, but this is still a well below-average unit.
The Kings are also in the midst of an upswing, but I view what they are doing as far more sustainable.
Their top line of Anze Kopitar, Adrian Kempe and Quinton Byfield can go head-to-head with any unit in the league. Kevin Fiala, Trevor Moore and Phillip Danault make up a second unit that has played to a 59.8% expected goal share across 559 minutes this season. That mark ranks as the second highest in the league among units to skate over 400 minutes together.
Viktor Arvidsson, one of the leagues most underrated players, was excellent in his return to the lineup on Thursday against Minnesota, putting up a goal and an assist.
A big part of the Kings' improved run of form has been the return of Mikey Anderson, who continues to be one of the most underrated players in the league. With him in tow, the Kings hold a considerably deeper blue line than the Lightning.
Andrei Vasilevskiy offers the Lightning their most notable edge in goal. Still, Cam Talbot has played to a +10.5 GSAx and .917 save percentage in 44 games.
For a game taking place in L.A., I believe the Kings deserve to be a larger favorite than -130. Anything better than -135 is a play for me.
Best Bet: Kings Moneyline -130 (FanDuel)
