Check out our Hurricanes vs. Panthers Game 4 best bets from our crew of hockey experts for Wednesday, May 24.
The 2022-23 NHL postseason rolls on with tonight's Carolina vs. Florida game (8 p.m., TNT). With the Panthers riding a commanding 3-0 lead, Game 4 tonight could be an eliminator for the tough-luck Canes.
Below, check out our hockey crew's top picks, including two early-game plays, for the pivotal Eastern Conference Finals matchup.
First to 5 Shots on Goal: Carolina Hurricanes (-106)
Ryan Dadoun: With all due respect to the rest of the Florida Panthers, the primary reason the Carolina Hurricanes are down 3-0 in this series is Sergei Bobrovsky.
If you look at the expected goals of the Eastern Conference Finals, per MoneyPuck, Carolina has had the edge in each game. The Hurricanes have also outshot Florida in each contest, especially in Games 2 and 3.
Bobrovsky has stopped 132 of 135 shots in the series, though, including 69 of 70 over his last two starts. That’s been the story of the series.
Will Carolina be able to finally overcome Bobrovsky on Wednesday to avoid the sweep? I have my doubts given how hot the Panthers’ goaltender is, but I expect the Hurricanes to at least put forth a strong effort, just as they have all series.
For that reason, I’m looking for Carolina to come out firing, challenging Bobrovsky early with their season on the line.
Pick: First to 5 SOG: Hurricanes (-106) |
1st Period Under 1.5 Goals (-120)
Greg Liodice: When this series began, I think most believed it to be a close one. Well, they weren’t exactly wrong. Although this series looks like a blowout as the Florida Panthers lead the Carolina Hurricanes 3-0, every game has been low-scoring and separated by one goal.
Goaltending in this series has also been dominant. Sergei Bobrovsky, after a lackluster regular season, is playing out of his mind. Not only has the veteran made highlight-reel saves, but he’s playing to a .935 SV% and an astounding +19.5 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
Freddie Andersen, though not as dazzling as Bobrovsky, has also been as strong as ever for the Hurricanes. He’s playing to a similar .937 SV% and a +6.2 GSAx in eight games.
You can argue that Carolina’s defense has been the best all playoffs, and yet here the Canes stand one game away from elimination. Even down three, they hold a 2.00 xGA/60 and an absurd 87.5% on the penalty kill. Florida just has been that much luckier with better goaltending.
Based on the trend that I’ve seen all series, I’m going to refer to my colleague Jonny Lazarus’ special. If any of you follow Jonny on Twitter, he’s been hammering the under for first-period goals all playoffs. With a series as tight-checking as this one with elite netminding, a low-scoring first period is what I’m expecting.
The Pick: 1st Period under 1.5 goals (-120 at Caesars)
Stefan Noesen Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-160)
Tony Sartori: The Panthers host the Hurricanes on Wednesday evening with the opportunity to complete the sweep and reach their first Stanley Cup Final since 1996. A big storyline in Game 3 was the poor officiating, whether it be inconsistent punishments during scrums or flat-out missed penalties in crucial situations.
Now, do I think that the refs are going to give Carolina makeup calls in Game 4? Absolutely not. That is not how this works.
However, with all the scrutiny that came from the league, media, Rod Brind'Amour and fans, it would not be shocking at all if the refs call a much tighter game on Wednesday. That could mean more power plays for both sides as the refs try to regain control of this series, which is something we can take advantage of in the betting market.
Enter Stefan Noesen. Serving in the bumper role on the Canes' first power-play unit, Noesen puts himself in the best spot possible during playoff hockey since many goals in a tightly contested series are found in the clean-up area net-front.
Noesen has scored one of Carolina's only three goals in this series while recording at least two shots in all three games. Additionally, at five-on-five, he skates on alongside Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho – the Canes' most important line.
With nothing to lose in a win-or-go-home game, this line will be out there a ton tonight, giving Noesen plenty of chances to record at least two shots on goal.
The Pick: Stefan Noesen over 1.5 shots on goal (-160 at DraftKings)
Frederik Andersen Under 27.5 Saves (-116)
Nicholas Martin: Carolina is widely considered the best defensive team in hockey, and nothing the Hurricanes have done in this series should change that line of thinking despite being down three games.
The Hurricanes have allowed just 19.66 shots on goal per game in regulation, and only 2.17 xGA/60, in this series.
At even strength in Game 3, the Panthers generated next to nothing. Even with Carolina taking five minor penalties, the Panthers generated just 17 shots on goal.
Florida likely will find a way to get some more shots on target at even strength in this matchup, but it is also likely Carolina will not take five minor penalties again.
Even a considerable uptick in Panthers shots should leave us with a bettable number here. I would still play this at 26.5.
Pick: Frederik Andersen under 27.5 saves (-116) |
