Avalanche vs Flames Odds
| Avalanche Odds | -180 |
| Flames Odds | +150 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -120 / +100 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Colorado Avalanche vs Calgary Flames on Tuesday, March 12 — our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Calgary Flames may have signaled their intent to look to the future, but that doesn't mean they're abandoning hope this season. Calgary sits eight points back of a wild card spot with 18 games to play.
Even if they don't make it, the Flames can at least embrace the role of spoiler over the final month of the season.
They just so happen to be playing a team whose party could be crashed on Thursday night. The Colorado Avalanche have divisional aspirations, sitting four points back of the Dallas Stars for the top spot in the Central Division.
Still, the Avs' metrics suggest they might be heading toward a correction phase. Colorado has seemingly outlasted its analytics, leaving an edge in backing a plus-money home underdog on Tuesday night. Let's dive into our Avalanche vs. Flames prediction and betting pick for Tuesday night.
Colorado Avalanche
You wouldn't know it from looking at their position in the standings, but the Avs aren't the model of analytics excellence.
They sit outside the top 10 in expected goals-for rating, occupying the 12th spot with a 51.2% benchmark. However, their actual rating of 54.4% moves the Avs much higher on the list, putting them sixth in the NHL.
As expected, we're starting to see those metrics erode over Colorado's recent sample, and we're anticipating further regression over the coming weeks.
The Avs have been outplayed in four of their past six, including Friday night's affair against the Minnesota Wild, in which they posted a disastrous 41.9% rating at home. That could be the beginning of the end for the Avalanche, as their record collapses under the stress of their unsustainable metrics.
Over their last 10 games, the Avs have elevated their PDO to an untenable 1.062. Their shooting and save percentages are both skyrocketing, reaching 11.2% and 95.8%, respectively, at 5-on-5.
Compared to their season-long averages of 9.4% and 91.4%, it becomes increasingly evident that Colorado is due for a letdown.
The betting price on the Avs doesn't reflect their current form, as Colorado can't sustain its current model. Look for more losses to follow before the end of the regular season.
Calgary Flames
Granted, Calgary's Eastern Conference road trip didn't go as planned. The Flames were humbled by two of the three teams they faced, although all of them are legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.
But with the trade deadline weighing down the locker room and several players being shipped off during the roadie, less than exceptional results were anticipated.
Still, their metrics weren't nearly as bad as their outcomes implied. Now, the Flames get to settle back in at home, where they've asserted themselves as a force.
Including their recent slump, the Flames have outplayed their opponents in three of their last five and seven of their last 11. Over that greater stretch, Calgary has put together a 52.1% expected goals-for rating, above its season-long average of 50.0%.
However, it has only six wins to show for its efforts and a disappointing 6-5-0 record. Even while sacrificing some of their best players at the trade deadline, the Flames deserve better outcomes.
That's even more true when we adjust for their home ice advantage. Calgary has outplayed its opponents in all but two of its last 10, producing a 54.6% expected goals-for rating. That's the seventh-best rating over that stretch, illustrating the Flames' dominance at the Saddledome.
Defense has been a resounding success, with Calgary limiting its opponents to an average of 7.9 high-danger chances per game.
Surely, that structure will come in handy as it tries to facilitate the Avalanche's anticipated regression.
Avalanche vs Flames
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Flames may have moved a few players at the trade deadline, but that doesn't mean they'll be mailing it in the rest of the way. Calgary has been a top analytics team lately, and they can wield those metrics against an overheating Avalanche side.
We're using Tuesday's Western Conference showdown between the Flames and Avs to take a principled stand on the underdog home squad.
This line could shift further in Avalanche's direction before puck drop, but we'd still play it at the current number available.
