Avalanche vs. Wild Odds
| Avalanche Odds | -165 |
| Wild Odds | +135 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100 / -121 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Colorado Avalanche vs. Minnesota Wild on Thursday, April 4 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Colorado is clearly the stronger team on paper, but the Avalanche have hit a bit of a rough patch, dropping three of their last four games. So, is there merit to taking the underdog?
We'll examine that possibility while previewing the upcoming contest and then offer an Avalanche vs. Wild prediction.
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado is cruising into the playoffs with a 47-22-6 record, but that doesn't mean the Avalanche have nothing left to play for. They're just five points shy of Dallas in the battle for the Central Division title and four points ahead of the third-seed Jets, so Colorado still could potentially move up or down.
In that context, the Avalanche's recent play has left a bit to be desired. They did earn a 7-4 victory over Nashville on Saturday, but a 2-1 loss to the lowly Canadiens on March 26m as well as a 4-1 loss to the Eastern Conference basement-dwelling Blue Jackets on Monday, isn't a great look.
Colorado also suffered a 3-2 shootout loss to the Rangers last Thursday.
Nathan MacKinnon was held off the scoresheet in the Columbus and New York games while being limited to a single goal against Montreal. Silencing the superstar is a daunting task – there's a reason he's accumulated 47 goals and 127 points through 75 appearances – but the Avalanche are just 4-7-1 over the rare instances in which MacKinnon has been scoreless compared to 43-15-5 in all other instances.
The Avalanche offense isn't entirely dependent on MacKinnon, but it's fair to say he's their driving force, especially with Valeri Nichushkin presently out due to a lower-body injury.
However, MacKinnon going two of his last three games without a point isn't enough to suggest he's going through any kind of cold spell. For one, he managed two goals and four points against Nashville in between those two blank showings. He's also fired 19 shots on goal in that span with a minimum of five in each contest, so it's not like he isn't making his presence felt.
Rather than worry about MacKinnon failing to deliver tonight, Colorado should be more concerned about goaltender Alexandar Georgiev. He's left something to be desired all campaign with his 2.85 GAA and .901 save percentage, and he's stopped just 62 of 72 shots (.861 save percentage) over his past three outings.
Minnesota Wild
Georgiev will get a bit of a break tonight because Minnesota will be without Ryan Hartman (19 goals, 42 points), who will serve the second contest of his three-game suspension, and those Wild who are available might not make life too difficult for the goaltender.
Kirill Kaprizov is one of the hottest forwards in the league with 11 goals and 20 points over his past 13 games, but he's the exception in Minnesota. Even with Kaprizov rolling, the Wild have managed just 11 goals over their past five games and have averaged just 2.55 goals per contest over their last 11 outings.
It's a shame Minnesota's offense has gone cold because its goaltending has actually been great lately. Filip Gustavsson is having a rough campaign with a 19-16-4 record, 3.04 GAA and .900 save percentage in 42 appearances, but he's saved an incredible 130 of 135 shots (.963 save percentage) over his past five outings.
He'll likely get the start tonight after Marc-Andre Fleury saved 30 of 32 shots en route to a 3-2 win over Ottawa in the Wild's most recent contest, on Tuesday.
Gustavsson has also held his own against the Avalanche's high-powered offense this campaign, turning aside 60 of 65 shots (.923 save percentage) over two starts, but he lost both of those contests because of a lack of goal support. Given the recent state of Minnesota's attack, tonight could be a similar story.
At least the game is in Minnesota. The Wild are substantially better at home with a 20-13-5 record compared to 16-16-4 on the road.
Meanwhile, for as dominant as the Avalanche have been in Denver (29-7-1), they have a middling 18-15-5 away record. Minnesota also won't be hurting for motivation as the squad desperately tries to stay in the battle for a playoff spot; the Wild are eight points back of LA in the battle for the second wild-card seed with a game in hand.
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Avalanche vs. Wild
Betting Pick & Prediction
I think Minnesota has a decent chance of eking out a win at home or at least keeping the contest close, but I certainly don't feel confident enough in the Wild to take them on the moneyline.
Instead, I'd rather recommend the Under 6.5 goals. Minnesota's offense hasn't been great lately, but Gustavsson has been lights out, so it wouldn't surprise me if this were a relatively low-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 6.5 Goals (-121 at BetRivers) | Play down to -135
