Blues vs. Avalanche Odds
| Blues Odds | +195 |
| Avalanche Odds | -240 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -140 / +114 |
The Avalanche got off to a 6-0-0 start, but have since shown blemishes and won just two of their past six contests. However, one of those two wins came against St. Louis, so it's best not to underestimate the slumping squad as we preview Saturday's contest and offer a Blues vs. Avalanche prediction.
St. Louis Blues
While Colorado has had an up-and-down start to the campaign, the Blues have been steadily mediocre, never winning or losing more than two games in a row. When the Blues do win, it's usually on the strength of their goaltending. St. Louis is 5-0-1 in contests in which it has allowed two or fewer goals, compared to 1-5-0 in games where its surrendered three or more markers.
That's not too surprising given that the Blues rank 30th offensively with just 2.33 goals per game. Robert Thomas has been fantastic with six goals and 11 points in 12 contests, but no other member of St. Louis has more than six points. Pavel Buchnevich, who had 67 points in 63 outings last year, has just four points while Jordan Kyrou, who surpassed the 70-point milestone in each of the past two campaigns, has accumulated two goals and four helpers.
Brayden Schenn is starting to show up and has two goals and four points over his past three contests, but he was limited to an assist over his first nine outings.
St. Louis' poor offense is an even more pressing problem now that Jordan Binnington is showing weakness. He's 1-3-0 with a 3.52 GAA and an .895 save percentage in his past four appearances. Backup goaltender Joel Hofer has stopped 49-of-53 shots (.925 save percentage) to help St. Louis win two of its past three games, which has masked the problem of Binnington's decline. However, Hofer has just 12 career contests worth of NHL experience, so to count on him to consistently play at that level is dangerous.
At some point, St. Louis needs either Binnington or its offense (preferably both) to rebound. Otherwise, the 6-5-1 start will be seen in retrospect as the highpoint of the campaign.
Colorado Avalanche
Well, Colorado can sure relate to starting goaltending issues. Alexandar Georgiev allowed just four goals on 113 shots (.965 save percentage) over his first four starts this year, but since then, he's played in six contests while posting a 4.28 GAA and an .851 save percentage. No wonder the Avalanche have been struggling.
To be clear, this is on the goaltender. The Avalanche's expected goals against is 37.74, which ranks 11th in the NHL, so their defense has been acceptable.
Colorado's offense is middling at 3.33 goals per game, but is worlds better than the Blues. Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon have performed largely as advertised with 18 and 14 points, respectively, through 12 contests. They also have one of the best offensive defenseman in the league in Cale Makar, who has three goals and 15 points.
Sure, Ryan Johansen (six points) and Jonathan Drouin (one point) haven't gelled with the Avalanche as well as many hoped when Colorado acquired them over the summer, but those are small potato problems compared to Georgiev's struggles.
Colorado has tried to give Georgiev time to regroup by using Ivan Prosvetov in two of its past four contests, but Prosvetov doesn't have much NHL experience. Deploying Prosvetov has also brought mixed results. He stopped 27-of-28 shots to help the Avalanche earn a 4-1 win against the Blues last time, but he then allowed four goals on 22 shots against Seattle, another team that's put up subpar offensive numbers.
Blues vs. Avalanche
Betting Pick & Prediction
Colorado is the overwhelming favorite, despite its recent hardships. To be fair, Colorado certainly deserves to be favored. Yes, both teams have struggling goaltenders, but at least the Avalanche have been adequate on offense. Colorado suffered three shutouts over four contests from Oct. 26-Nov. 4, but that seems to be in the past after the Avalanche scored nine goals over their past two games.
This contest will also be played in Colorado, where the Avalanche are 4-1-0 this season.
I really like this game to go Over 5.5 goals. However, the potential payout on FanDuel is -140, which is lower than what I'm looking for. I'm instead going to recommend betting on the idea that the Avalanche's offense and home-ice advantage will lead to them besting St. Louis on the puck line.
Pick: Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (+104) | Play Down to -105
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