NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Blues vs. Oilers Pick, Best Bet (October 22)

Blues vs. Oilers Odds

St. Louis has had a great start to the season as the Blues are 2-0 and coming off an exciting overtime win in Seattle. They’ve also had a lot of time to rest, playing just twice in their opening week.

After a great season in which they reached the Western Conference Finals, the Edmonton Oilers have stumbled out of the gate. They had a wonderful win on opening night, lost to both Calgary and Buffalo, then evened out with a win against Carolina.

Will the Blues stay undefeated? Or does Edmonton get over .500 in front of its home fans?

St. Louis Blues

The Blues are one of the more talented groups in the league. They have one of the better blends of young stars and experienced vets. Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas are fresh off signing shiny new deals and emerged as integral parts to this Blues team with 75 and 77 points last season. Sniper Vladimir Tarasenko has had a red-hot start with five points in two games and captain Ryan O’Reilly hasn’t found his way on the score sheet just yet.

I think the Blues are a little better than their 47.55 xGF% (expected goals). It’s not a bad mark — they’re just below the median — and they average about eight high-danger chances per game. I have liked what I’ve seen out of their penalty kill, though I thought it was little concerning that they struggled so much against Seattle. However, the first 10 games are often wildly unpredictable for teams.

Last year, I wondered about the future of Jordan Binnington in St. Louis. He started off hot, then struggled so much that he lost his starting job to Ville Husso before winning it back in the playoffs. Husso is now in Detroit and Thomas Greiss has taken the backup job. I expect Binnington to start against the Oilers and he’s playing to a decent +0.2 goals saved above expected (GSAx) with a .917 SV%.

Edmonton Oilers

The knock on the Oilers for years is that their depth was lacking. Last year it seemed to have turned the corner and Edmonton became a team that could score from any line. They’ve always relied on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but the burden was lifted last year, especially when they signed Evander Kane in the middle of the season. However, I haven’t seen a ton of depth scoring yet. Kane was scoring at a ridiculous pace last season, but just got on the score sheet for the first time Thursday (as did Zach Hyman) and I expect him to find his touch sooner or later.

With the lack of depth production, the models haven’t taken kindly to their first four games. They currently stand 20th with a 46.35 xGF% and have been fairly average at creating high danger chances — an average of about 10 per game. One thing that has always worked for them is the power play. Edmonton has consistently been among the elite teams at scoring with the man advantage and is at 37.5% this year.

Jack Campbell hasn’t had a great beginning in his new home. He and Stuart Skinner have split the starts, with Skinner getting the better of the looks. Campbell was brought in to be the answer to Edmonton’s goaltending woes, but in three starts he’s playing to a -2.8 GSAx and an .874 SV%. Skinner, on the other hand, has had a great showing in two games (one in relief) with a +2.4 GSAx and a .944 SV%. I wonder if Skinner plays here since Campbell played in Carolina. Coach Jay Woodcroft may want to see what he has in both of his netminders despite Campbell’s hefty contract.

Blues vs. Oilers Pick

I can already envision this one being a red-light party. You have two offenses that can light it up going against average goaltending. If Campbell continues the trend of letting in five goals a night, St. Louis will be licking its chops. The jury is still out on Skinner, though I’ve always been pretty high on him.

Ever since winning the cup, Binnington has had a real up-and-down career. He’s been an All Star, and he’s lost his job. Now, he’s back at the helm and doing a fine job. However, his game can be volatile and if teams can find a weak spot, they’ll take advantage of it. McDavid, Draisaitl and Kane will all be hovering near the blue paint.

7 is a good over/under number. Both teams have shown they can light the lamp, but also let in a few. I can definitely see this reaching the over.

Pick: Over 7 (+100)