Blues vs. Penguins Odds
| Blues Odds | +172 |
| Penguins Odds | -210 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -105 / -115 |
We are quickly approaching the halfway point of the NHL season, and the intensity will only continue to ascend as we inch toward the postseason. Two squads with playoff aspirations will take to the ice Saturday in the Steel City as the Pittsburgh Penguins host the St. Louis Blues.
Pittsburgh's stock is on the rise, with the Penguins going 3-0-1 over their last four. More importantly, they have metrics supporting ongoing success.
The Blues aren't as lucky. St. Louis has been one of the worst analytics teams in the league, getting humbled over their recent schedule. Still, they are within striking distance of a playoff spot, sitting just two points back of the final wild card berth in the Western Conference.
The betting market opened the Penguins as mid-range favorites, but our analysis supports the price underestimates Pittsburgh's probability of walking away victorious. Let's take a look at the matchup before offering a Blues vs. Penguins prediction.
St. Louis Blues
St. Louis has vastly outperformed its underwhelming metrics this season. The Blues rank in the bottom half of the league in virtually every category, with the fifth-worst Corsi rating, eighth-worst scoring chance and fourth-worst high-danger ratios. Altogether, those stats contribute to their lackluster 45.9% expected goals-for rating, putting them 28th out of 32 teams.
We've seen the worst of what the Blues have to offer over their recent stretch. St. Louis has posted game scores below 30% in two of its previous four games. Over that modest sample, the Blues have accumulated a 44% expected goals-for percentage, below their already concerning season-long benchmark. Those concerns are amplified by a condensed schedule, as the Blues take the ice Saturday on the second night of a back-to-back and for the third time in four days.
The Blues rely too heavily on special teams scoring and elite goaltending, continuously getting outplayed at 5-on-5. St. Louis isn't as good as its record implies, making it a difficult team to back over its coming games. Regression could impact its chances of success, starting on Saturday night versus the Penguins.
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Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins may be in the autumn of their dynasty, but the sun hasn't fully set on them yet. Sidney Crosby and company remain a solid analytics team, ranking eighth in the NHL with a 52.3% expected goals-for rating. They've also increased production over their recent sample, tilting the ice further in their favor. Playing in front of a raucous home crowd Saturday night against a tired Blues squad provides an opportunity to build off their current form.
Pittsburgh has started by tidying up its defensive zone structure. The Penguins have limited their last four opponents to nine high-danger chances or fewer, with a rolling average of 7.3 opportunities per game. Predictably, scoring chances have fallen as a result, with all but one of those teams falling below 23 scoring opportunities.
Sorting out play in their own end has also facilitated the Penguins' offensive growth. They have flourished lately, totaling 30 quality chances over their last two outings. That's shifted the expected goals-for percentage further in their direction, with the Penguins posting game scores above 58% in three of their past four. Over that four-game sample, Pittsburgh is up to 59.2%, a benchmark it should be able to maintain against St. Louis.
Blues vs. Penguins
Betting Pick & Prediction
Although these teams have similar records, they are positioned on opposite ends of the analytics chart. Pittsburgh is still milking its aging roster for every ounce of effort, while the Blues continue to rate as one of the worst teams in the league.
St. Louis also made the mistake of starting primary netminder Jordan Binnington on Friday night, leaving backup Joel Hofer to hold down the fort at the PPG Paints Arena on Saturday.
The Penguins' recent surge in offensive production, combined with the Blues' league-worst analytics, should result in a one-sided affair. We're using this spot to back the home side, betting the Penguins up to -200.
Pick: Penguins -178 (Play to -200)
