Bruins vs. Lightning Odds
| Bruins Odds | -105 |
| Lightning Odds | -115 |
| Over / Under | 6 -105 / -115 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Boston Bruins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning on Wednesday, March 27 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Lightning's 7-1-2 tear has essentially ended any chances of them snapping a six-year playoff streak.
They return home after a 3-0-1 Western road swing, which culminated with Sunday's 3-2 overtime win in Anaheim. They played that game without the services of top center Brayden Point and top defender Victor Hedman, but both appear likely to return Wednesday night.
The Bruins are coming off an impressive win of their own, as they bested the Panthers Tuesday night in an important divisional showdown.
First in the Atlantic remains a strong possibility as a result, and adds a layer of importance to this game for Boston.
Boston Bruins
The Bruins continue to win games at an absurd rate the last two year. After Tuesday night's quality win in Florida, they are now 104-28-20 over the last two seasons.
They ran with favorable luck in 2022-23 in close games, and have at times been less dominant than their record suggests this season. Still, they own a +42 goal differential overall, and continue to prove to be one of the Eastern Conference's best sides despite not holding a true No. 1 center.
All of the top teams this year have one flaw or another to nitpick, which is why we are seeing one of the closest Presidents' Trophy races in history. For the Bruins it is obviously their lesser options at center, but they have strengths to help cover up for that concern. Charlie Coyle, Pavel Zacha and Morgan Geekie continue to post reasonable results, too.
With Hampus Lindholm back in the mix, Boston's defensive core is one of the best in the league. It has helped drive a 52.98% expected goal share over the last 10 games, a sample that includes six matchups versus teams headed to the postseason.
Mason Lohrei looks to be a healthy scratch again tonight. While I don't agree with that decision, it is a luxury Bruce Cassidy is afforded given the overall depth of his defensive core.
Cassidy is also afforded a roster that holds two elite netminders, which is always a huge edge in these back-to-back spots. Linus Ullmark, who will presumably get this start after resting on Tuesday, has played to a +12.2 GSAx and .913 save percentage across 35 appearances.
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Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning have been a profitable team to fade this season, and I'll continue to note that no team gets more credit for doing less than Tampa.
Andrei Vasilevskiy steals a game in Florida with a season-high 47 saves, and suddenly we are hearing talk about the Lightning as a cup favorite again from mainstream media.
The fact that Vasilevskiy is capable of stealing any matchup is concerning, but just holding one of the league's best goalies does not mean the rest of Tampa's roster hasn't taken steps backward compared to where it has been.
The Lightning's defensive core is poor compared to a team like Boston. Losing Mikhail Sergachev to injury certainly hurts, as the rest of the unit has not done overly well to drive play in the right direction.
Darren Raddysh has taken steps forward and might be slightly underrated at this point. Even still, the totality of the Lightning's defensive core has dropped off more than most people are crediting at this point..
On offense, the Lightning are one-dimensional. Nikita Kucherov's has been phenomenal with 123 points and powers what is a league-best power play. Still, with Steven Stamkos and Anthony Cirelli offering surprisingly middling campaigns, and bets on depth players like Tanner Jeannot are not working out, the Lightning are somewhat of a one-trick pony.
Holding the league's best power play and Vasilevskiy will make the Lightning an irritating out to be sure, but the other holes in the roster prevent me from viewing them as a true cup contender this season.
Vasilevskiy has been confirmed as Tampa's starter for Wednesday's matchup after resting Sunday in Anaheim. He has played to a -3.0 GSAx and .897 save percentage over 44 appearances this season but has trended into more typical form down the stretch after a slow start following back surgery.
Bruins vs. Lightning
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Bruins have displayed a considerably more well-rounded team game than the Lightning this season. Boston's defensive game at five-on-five is much better, and it is logical that should continue given that its roster holds considerably more depth. While this is a back-to-back spot, the travel is minimal, and the Bruins still get to play one of the league's better netminders with Ullmark.
Point and Hedman do appear likely to play in this matchup, based on the morning skate. Still, I would argue that the Bruins deserve to be a slight favorite, and any price better than -105 is worthy of a play on Boston.
Pick: Bruins ML -104 (FanDuel, Play to -105 or wider with Point/Hedman out)
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