Canucks vs Oilers Prediction
| Canucks Odds | +170 |
| Oilers Odds | -205 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -105o / -115u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Canucks vs. Oilers odds for Game 4 on Tuesday, May 14 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Oddsmakers doubted the Canucks entering this series, coming in as +215 underdogs despite being the higher seed. Even with a 2-1 series lead, Vancouver is still a slight underdog to win the series at -115.
Tensions will be high in tonight's game after the Canucks took some liberties with Connor McDavid at the end of Game 3.
Most Oilers media members are calling for a response, but with no wiggle room in the series, the Oilers will need to respond without taking unnecessary penalties.
Edmonton has created more chances in this series overall but has been undone by a .790 save percentage from Stuart Skinner. As a result, the Oilers are going to pivot to backup Calvin Pickard for this pivotal Game 4, which adds another wrinkle of volatility to this matchup.
Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks were mainly written off in this series because their biggest perceived edge was with injured goaltender Thatcher Demko.
Goaltending is the toughest part of hockey to project, but it still would have been bold to predict Arturs Silovs to have a better series than Skinner.
Skinner is not an elite goaltender, but he has still been a league-average NHL starter for a significant sample size, while Silovs spent most of the year in the AHL. Silovs has played to a .877 save percentage in the series, though, which is considerably better than the .802 save percentage the Oilers' goaltenders own.
I'll often point out that save percentage doesn't tell the entire story because it comes down to which shots are supposed to be saved. A goalie could face 15 shots, and three of them are chances that are always going to result in a goal. On the other end of the spectrum, he might see 25 shots but none should ever be a goal.
The Oilers haven't been overly sharp defensively and have offered up some ugly breakdowns in key areas. Still, the Oilers are preventing chances more effectively than the Canucks, and the goaltending disparity is hiding that fact.
The Canucks have allowed 3.65 xGA/60 in this series, while they've generated only 2.38 xGF/60 on the other end of the ice.
Analytics aside, one advantage the Canucks clearly hold is more scoring upside further down the lineup. With Elias Lindholm displaying far better form on an excellent third line, the Canucks have some meaningful scoring punch away from the top six.
Carson Soucy will be serving his one-game suspension in this matchup, which means Noah Juulsen should draw back into the lineup.
Edmonton Oilers
By no means has Edmonton general manager Ken Holland done a good job with the Oilers, but the continued criticism for heading into the playoffs with Skinner is a little unfair.
The list of elite starting goaltenders is extremely short, and they're rarely ever available. Nashville's Juuse Saros was considered the best goalie available, but Saros' shaky play in Round 1 was a key reason why the Canucks made it into this series.
The main criticism for Holland should be not trading for a replacement to upgrade Cody Ceci. The move would've had a manageable cost and would've offered a notable upgrade to the team in terms of true replacement value.
In 123.3 minutes together this postseason, Ceci and Darnell Nurse have played to a 32.7% expected goal share. The eye test in this series agrees that the pair has been atrocious.
The shaky play in goal from Skinner, along with the awful defensive play from Nurse and Ceci, has created yet another series where the Oilers' superstars are forced to play ludicrous minutes. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard have all played nearly 30 minutes in the last two games.
Draisaitl has been a force in the series with two goals and six points in only three games. Over the last three postseasons, Draisaitl has scored 27 goals in just 36 games, with an absurd total of 68 points.
Leon Draisaitl hits the post. Thats four posts for the Oilers in this game already. #Canucks | #LetsGoOilers
📽️: Sportsnet | NHL pic.twitter.com/KRxzYAP2Ri— Nation Network Media (@NationNMedia) May 13, 2024
The Oilers have confirmed they will start backup Pickard in this matchup. Pickard played to a +0.1 GSAx and .909 save percentage in 23 appearances during the regular season.
Canucks vs Oilers
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Oilers entered this series power-rated higher than the Canucks by all oddsmakers, and their analytical profile in the series remains excellent. Those factors contribute to Edmonton's -205 price tag, but it's hard for me to lay a number like that in this spot.
Edmonton carried more of the play in Game 3, and it's obvious the loss was unlucky overall. The Oilers hit five posts and missed a ton of grade-A looks. They were playing from several goals behind all night, though, and played their elite skaters as many minutes as possible.
It's unlikely the Oilers control more of the play than they did in Game 3 tonight. We also can't feel overly safe betting Pickard at -205. For those reasons, I don't see value in backing either side.
This series should continue to produce high-event game scripts, and chances are the Oilers' superstars will continue to play huge minutes.
Rather than back the Oilers as a side, I'd recommend taking your chances on productive nights from their superstars.
Draisaitl to score at any time at +130 (bet365) is the look that stands out for me. He was excellent again in Game 2 and should continue to score often enough to make that number quite valuable.
