Coyotes vs. Lightning Odds
| Coyotes Odds | +160 |
| Lightning Odds | -194 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +110 / -134 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Arizona Coyotes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday, Jan. 25 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Despite the big loss last night, I wouldn’t second guess the Coyotes. For a team expected to be in the lottery, they’re in the thick of the playoff race and are no longer considered an easy win anymore.
On the other hand, Tampa isn’t the juggernaut that it once was. However, the Lightning are in the middle of a little hot streak. Once outside looking in, the Lightning have won six out of their last seven games and now stand third in the Atlantic Division.
Find my Coyotes vs. Lightning prediction and NHL betting preview below.
Arizona Coyotes
Clayton Keller is on an absolute tear. The 25-year-old winger has points in eight of his last nine games. Lined up with Nick Bjugstad and Matias Maccelli, their line is amongst the more powerful ones. Lawson Crouse is also starting to emerge as a legitimate scorer on the second line.
Even though this season has worked out in Arizona’s favor, its 5-on-5 play is quite average. The Yotes rank 20th in Expected Goals with a 49.11 xGF% and are 24th defensively with a 2.78 xGA/60.
The power play is their bread and butter. Keller and Nick Schmaltz have scored the bulk of their goals, but Arizona scores at a 22.6% clip. On the penalty kill, it gets the job done decently at 79%.
With Karel Vejmelka starting last night, expect to see Connor Ingram tonight. Ingram fully has taken over the net this season in Arizona. In his first full season, Ingram gives the Coyotes the best chance to win as he is playing to a .919 SV% and a third-best 15.3 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).
Tampa Bay Lightning
Nikita Kucherov is having an astounding season. He had a strong season in 2018-19, but this is on another level. Behind him, Tampa’s usual suspects have carried the weight. Brayden Point and Victor Hedman are both averaging a point per game, while captain Steven Stamkos isn’t far behind.
When I mentioned that Tampa isn’t the powerhouse it used to be, I wasn’t lying. The Bolts’ 5-on-5 play is among the weakest with a 48.7 xGF% and 2.7 xGA/60.
However, the power play is still incredibly lethal, scoring at an insane 30.5% rate. The penalty kill is also pretty solid as it gets the job done 80.7% of the time.
Nonetheless, the Lightning's goaltending has been a massive pain point. Andrei Vasilevskiy is not having a season up to his usual standards. He’s played fairly inconsistently by posting a .901 SV% and a 3.9 GSAx. We would usually see him in the top of those rankings, but coming off back surgery, it’s been tough for the former Conn Smythe winner to get his legs under him.
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Coyotes vs. Lightning
Betting Pick & Prediction
We know how good the Lightning are and how much better they can be. It’ll be very interesting to see if they can keep this hot stretch up for the remainder of the season. Vasilevskiy will get better – he’s the least of my concerns. However, the Lightning's 5-on-5 play scares me. Luckily for the Lightning, they play a team that doesn’t play great 5-on-5 defense and finds itself in the penalty box far too often.
Arizona has itself in a bit of a bind. The Florida gauntlet is always an uphill battle, especially on back-to-back games. The Coyotes have surprised a lot of people, but I can’t see them coming out on top here. The star power on the other side is far too much, and the Coyotes are already feeling the heat after falling to a Panthers team that just lost four in a row prior.
I'm backing Tampa to come out on top in regulation.
Pick: Lightning 60-Minute Moneyline (-130)
