Devils vs. Stars Odds
| Devils Odds | +150 |
| Stars Odds | -180 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -105 / -115 |
Here's everything you need to know about the New Jersey Devils vs Dallas Stars on Thursday, March 14 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Central Division is shaping up to be quite the battle down the stretch. Three teams are still vying for top spot in the division and home-ice advantage through at least the first two rounds of the playoffs.
As it stands, the Dallas Stars have a minuscule two-point lead over the Winnipeg Jets and Colorado Avalanche, albeit with two more games played than the Jets. As such, they can't afford to slip up at any point and risk conceding the lead to their Canadian rivals. That includes bringing their A-game into Thursday's affair against the New Jersey Devils.
The Devils are in the midst of a four-game road trip, dropping the opener on Monday night against the New York Rangers. Now, they begin the western part of the road swing, playing three games in four nights, starting with a tilt against the Stars.
The betting market opened the Stars as moderate home favorites, but bettors might be undervaluing the home side and the total in this inter-conference battle.
New Jersey Devils
Losers of five of their past six, the Devils' playoff hopes are going up in flames. New Jersey has dropped some questionable decisions over the past few weeks, getting bested by some of the best teams in the league. The Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, Los Angeles Kings, and aforementioned Rangers have all bested the Devils recently, and that's unlikely to change against the Stars.
Since the start of March, New Jersey has been outplayed in four of its six games. The only teams they've outplayed over that stretch are the lowly Anaheim Ducks and St. Louis Blues. Predictably, that has left the Devils' metrics in a state of disarray.
New Jersey has out-chanced their opponents in scoring chances just twice across the six-game sample. Although they've fared slightly better in high-danger opportunities, splitting the six games evenly with their opponents, those metrics look worse when adjusted. Three of those six contests came at home and two came against two came against some of the worst analytics teams in the NHL.
As ineffective as their relative metrics have appeared, the Devils deserve credit for their tight defensive zone play. New Jersey has limited four of its last six opponents to seven or fewer high-danger chances for an average of 7.2 per game. Likewise, they've held opponents to an average of 17.2 scoring opportunities over the same stretch. Still, the Devils don't possess the offensive systems to benefit from that elite defensive structure.
As such, they might be doomed to losing more tight-checking games.
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Dallas Stars
Over the past few years, the Stars have earned a reputation for being a staunch defensive club. And that's the case again this season. Dallas sits in the top ten in scoring and high-danger chances allowed in 2023-24, tightening its standard over the past few weeks.
Since February 29, the Stars have held all but one of their six opponents to nine or fewer quality chances and every team to 22 or fewer scoring opportunities. Overall, opponents have been limited to an average of 16.2 scoring and 6.5 high-danger chances, illustrating the Stars' seemingly impenetrable shell in the defending zone.
But unlike their opponents on Thursday night, the Stars have benefited from sustained offensive play. Dallas has been out-chanced just once over that stretch, yielding 60.4% scoring chance and 58.5% high-danger chance ratings. As expected, that's contributed to an improved expected goals-for rating, with the Stars operating at a 59.7% clip. That's the second-best mark in the NHL since the end of last month.
Devils vs. Stars
Betting Pick & Prediction
We expect the Stars' analytics superiority to reign supreme on Thursday night. Better teams than the Devils have been hamstrung against the Stars, and that's even more pronounced at American Airlines Arena.
However, we can't discount the Devils' improved defensive structure. New Jersey has handcuffed some impressive opponents lately, and that should continue against the Stars.
Altogether, our analysis points toward two plays.
First, the Stars are light years ahead of the Devils analytically and deserve a steeper moneyline price than -172.
Second, both teams play with defensive ferocity that should make goals hard to come by. Therefore, we're playing the Stars moneyline at -190 or better and under 6.5 at any price you can get.
Pick: Stars ML(-172), Under 6.5 (-105)
