Ducks vs. Sabres Odds
| Ducks Odds | +160 |
| Sabres Odds | -190 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -115o / -105u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Anaheim Ducks vs. Buffalo Sabres on Monday, February 19 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Ducks will look to bounce back from Saturday's 9-2 loss as they finish up a three game Eastern road swing. They have actually played to a better record on the road this season at 11-15-1.
The host Sabres own reverse splits themselves. After Saturday's overtime win in Minnesota, they hold a 12-11-3 record away from KeyBank Center, but are just 12-15-1 at home.
Anaheim Ducks
The important task for Ducks head coach Greg Cronin will be continuing to enforce good habits at both ends of the ice this season, which was something his predecessor Dallas Eakins failed to do last year. While the Ducks are going to be a lottery team this April, there are still a number of important young pieces on the team that need to learn the details of the NHL game.
Things got out of control Saturday in Toronto, as a high-powered Leafs offense turned a sloppy defensive performance from the Ducks into a laugher. The first game of the road trip offered a similar story, as Cronin's side displayed no compete in a 5-0 thumping at the hands of the Canadiens. Still, those two matchups were the outliers in terms of recent team performance. Over the last 15 games, those were the Ducks' clear worst showings, and even amid a difficult schedule, they have put up a 47.32% expected goal rating.
Anaheim responded to Tuesday's 5-0 loss in Montreal with a 5-1 win in Ottawa, a trend that has actually proven true a number of times this season. The Ducks are 6-6-1 in games following a loss by three or more goals this season. While 6-6-1 doesn't sound overly impressive, .500 is still far better than their overall .370 win percentage.
Trevor Zegras and Brock McGinn are the only players listed on the Ducks' injured list for this matchup. While their blue line is entirely unconvincing with Jamie Drysdale out of the picture, their top six does offer some legitimate scoring upside with Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish back in the lineup. While neither has played very well of late, look for stronger finishes to the season from that pair.
Expect John Gibson to get the start here, as Lukáš Dostál lasted just one period Saturday before being pulled, and the duo has split the net fairly evenly. Gibson has played to a 3.3 GSAx despite a save percentage of only .899 in his 35 appearances this season.
Buffalo Sabres
In 16 games since the start of the new year, the Sabres have played to a record of 9-7-0, which is considerable improvement from what we saw in the opening three months of the season. A .562 win percentage over the whole season would have them in the final playoff spot, but thanks to their dreadful start, they still sit 10 points back.
The most notable change for the Sabres over this improved run of play is that they have quietly received some incredible goaltending. In the last 16 games, the Sabres' .926 team save percentage ranks second in the entire NHL. All but three of those contests have been played by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who now owns a .914 save percentage and 7.1 GSAx in 30 appearances this season.
While Luukkonen entered the league as a highly touted netminder, it is still illogical to expect him to continue posting league-best numbers over a large sample.
Over the last 15 games, the Sabres own a 47.19% expected goals share. The play of their defensive core has been the greatest concern toward their modest control of play, as breaking the puck out with control continues to be a problem. While Owen Power has not played to the level most would have expected this season, his absence still hurts for a team struggling to move the puck into the offensive zone.
Mattias Samuelsson hasn't been as strong defensively as expected either, but his form was still a clear upgrade over that of Conor Clifton this year.
Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch have both been significantly less productive than we saw a year ago, which has been part of the concern leading to the Sabres' 2.93 goals for per game. If their offensive play doesn't improve in the near future, it is going to start leading to worse results.
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Ducks vs. Sabres
Betting Pick & Prediction
This sets up as a good buy-low, sell-high spot, as the Sabres are getting lots of credit for a modest stretch of play to be priced at -200. The Sabres enter off an upset win on the road, while the Ducks lost 9-2 last time out. Looking at a wider lens of these teams current form, though, there is reason to believe Anaheim can respond to that humiliating loss and hang around in this one.
The Sabres defensive core is a clear weakness with Power and Samuelsson sidelined. Luukkonen has been brilliant recently to help win some games, but if his level trends down, the Sabres are going to look like a below-average team again. Jordan Greenway playing top-six minutes is another flaw, and I don't believe the rosters in this game are as drastically far off as the price suggests.
These teams own comparable underlying results over the last 10 games of action. I'll bet the Ducks surprise and own a relatively even share of the 5-on-5 play here, and Gibson should post comparable results in goal to Luukkonen.
The Sabres obviously deserve to be favored in this matchup, but not to the extent of Sunday's prices. The Ducks still have enough talent to make this one competitive versus a stagnant Sabres offense if they play a more organized game defensively. It's also worth noting that both of these teams own reverse home/road splits, and yet the game being in Buffalo is still baked into the prices.
I would bet the Ducks to win at anything better than +150.
Pick: Ducks Moneyline +165 (Play to +150)
