Flames vs Avalanche Odds
| Flames Odds | +145 |
| Avalanche Odds | -177 |
| Over / Under | 6 -117/ -105 |
Here's everything you need to know about Flames vs. Avalanche on Monday, Dec. 11 – our expert NHL preview and prediction.
These two teams just squared off a couple of weeks ago, with Colorado claiming a 3-1 win on its home ice in a low-scoring affair.
Will the Under cash again, or can the goal scoring pick up this time around?
Let's dig into the NHL odds and make a Flames vs. Avalanche prediction.
Calgary Flames
At this point of the season, we know who the Calgary Flames are. They are a below-average group that struggles offensively but still play competitively on the defensive end.
While that leads to a very boring brand of hockey, it typically bodes well for taking the Under when they play. There have now been six or fewer total goals scored in four of Calgary's past seven games, and in five of its past six against Colorado.
At 5-on-5, the Flames rank in the bottom half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). However, they also rank 12th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.
The main concern whenever you take an Under in a Calgary game is its goaltending. Since Jacob Markstrom remains sidelined with a hand injury, Dan Vladar is once again tasked with guarding the crease for the Flames.
While it is tough to trust Vladar, he has fared well against the Avs as he boasts a .912 SV% and 2.72 GAA through three career starts against them.
Colorado Avalanche
Across the ice, Alexandar Georgiev is slated to start between the pipes for the Avalanche. The numbers don't necessarily reflect how well he has played this season, posting a 14-7-1 record with a .902 SV% and 2.82 GAA.
He has been getting the results recently that more accurately display his skill in the crease, generating a 3-2-1 record with a .922 SV% and 2.42 GAA over his past seven starts. There were six or fewer total goals scored in five of those seven outings.
This success is likely to continue against Calgary, a team he dominated last year. Through two career starts against the Flames as a member of the Avs, Georgiev is 2-0 with a commanding .969 SV% and 1.00 GAA.
There were five total goals scored in each of those two outings.
Flames vs Avalanche
Betting Pick & Prediction
Making Georgiev's life easier is the fact that Colorado is one of the best two-way teams in the league. At 5-on-5, the Avalanche rank eighth in expected goal differential per 60 minutes.
The blue line is talented when this team avoids the injury bug, which was a problem earlier on. However, Cale Makar is back and helping Devon Toews hold down the fort defensively.
Colorado's offense is obviously also very strong, but Calgary's solid defensive play and Vladar's track record against the Avs makes me confident that their offensive output can be tamed enough to keep this game under the total.
I am taking the Under 6 at +108 via FanDuel under the "Total Goals (Flat Line)" tab, but I think there is also value in taking the Under 6.5 at -118 if you wish to go that route.
Pick: Under 6 (+108 at FanDuel | Play to +100)
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