Flames vs. Kings Odds
| Flames Odds | -105 |
| Kings Odds | -114 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | BSW |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
Calgary's tumultuous campaign is nearing its conclusion and the Flames have just 12 games left to avoid a shocking playoff miss after entering the season among the favorites in the West.
According to Moneypuck, a win Monday would raise Calgary's playoff chances to 43%, but that will be no easy task against a Kings squad which has played to a 22-9-4 mark on home ice.
Calgary Flames
Calgary lost in all too familiar fashion Saturday versus the Stars. Calgary was clearly the better team throughout regulation, generating 4.25 xG to the Stars 2.80 prior to a loss in three-on-three.
The Flames have posted a 6-15 record in games ending past regulation. Even a .500 record past regulation would have Calgary holding a playoff berth in the West.
Over the past 10 games, Calgary has played to a dominant 54.73% expected goals rating, and was visibly excellent in recent games versus elite teams such as Vegas, Boston and two contests versus the Stars.
Calgary posted a 4-3-3 record in those games, despite playing to a +4 goal differential inside of regulation.
Calgary's mobile defensive core continues to be a gigantic strength relative to most sides, and is excellent at activating in the offensive zone to help prolong attacks.
The true quality of the Flames offensive chances continues to be put into question. It seems possible to believe a lack of offensive creativity with regard to in-zone passing is part of consistently underscoring expectation.
However, it would be fair to say the opposite is true at the other end of the ice. Defensively, the Flames are allowing even less quality chances than most public models state.
Jacob Markstrom owns a -0.6 GSAx rating with an .891 save % through 49 appearances and is likely to start Monday.
Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles is in the midst of some notably dominant form as well. The Kings have put up a 7-1-2 mark over the past 10 games and are making a push for the Pacific division title.
Those contests have come against teams averaging 19.6th in the league, which has made for a nice soft start to goaltender Joonas Korpisalo's Kings career.
The Kings will likely remain without top scorer Kevin Fiala, who has 68 points in 66 games. He also leads the team in chances created, zone entries per 60 and shot assists per 60. His absence makes the top power-play unit drastically less threatening. In a small sample of four games, Los Angeles has scored just 3.00 goals per game without Fiala.
Monday could potentially see the Kings turn back to Pheonix Copley in goal as he and Korpisalo have split games since Korpisalo's arrival. Copley has played to a +5.9 GSAx and .904 save % in 31 appearances. He's likely overachieving due to the elite defensive environment Los Angeles produces.
Flames vs. Kings Pick
It is hard to entirely identify between bad luck and flawed play with the Calgary Flames, but it's clear that in the regulation period of play it is capable of dominating any side in the NHL — and has done so often over the past several weeks.
Los Angeles has been in excellent form recently, but has also been surging through a soft schedule, and is in significantly less dire need of two points.
Calgary will likely manage to generate more chances in this game and should be able to make life tough on either Copley or Korpisalo.
Backing Markstrom or Daniel Vladar is not overly fun, but it is hard to pass on a team that is likely to carry more of the play and is priced as a slight underdog with its season essentially on the line.
Pick: Flames -105 | Play to -110 |
