Flames vs. Kings Odds
| Flames Odds | +160 |
| Kings Odds | -194 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -1220o / +100u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Calgary Flames vs. Los Angeles Kings on Thursday, April 11 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
After an ineffective stretch in which they've gone 3-4-0, the Los Angeles Kings' path to the postseason is far from guaranteed. They have just a one-point cushion over the Vegas Golden Knights for the third seed in the Pacific Division, putting them just four ahead of the St. Louis Blues, who are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.
Those issues could be compounded on Thursday night, as the Kings host a scrappy Flames squad that has seen a recent uptick in production.
Of course, the Flames are a shell of their former selves after trading away some of their top players ahead of the trade deadline. Still, they remain an elite analytics team and have put forth top-end metrics against some of the best teams in the league.
The betting line is moving away from Calgary in this one, creating a wider advantage in backing the guests as they try to up end the Kings' playoff chase.
Calgary Flames
Production doesn't always translate to output, but Flames fans should be reassured by their team's recent performances. Calgary is averaging 10.3 High-Danger Chances per game over its past six, eclipsing double-digits in three of those outings. Combined with their usual stout defending, the Flames have tilted the Expected Goals-For ratings in their direction lately. However, this hasn't yielded the results we would typically expect, but wins should start to come.
The Flames' offensive production has been matched by sustained defensive structure. They've allowed more than nine High-Danger Chances just twice across the six-game sample, limiting opponents to an average of 8.7 opportunities per game. Consequently, Calgary has been out-chanced in Quality Chances just twice over its recent stretch, resulting in a 54.4% High-Danger Chance Rating.
More importantly, that elite play on both ends of the ice is a contributing factor to the Flames' 54.3% Expected Goals-For Rating. That puts them well ahead of their actual Goals-For Rating of 36.8%, making them natural progression candidates to end the campaign.
The knock on the Flames is that they've dealt away some of their top performers ahead of the trade deadline. Still, they have a cast of top performers on their top-two lines complemented by depth scoring throughout their lineup. Calgary has too much pride to watch its season go up in flames. Look for them to end the season on a high note as actual metrics catch up with expected metrics.
Los Angeles Kings
The Kings don't get to brag about the same analytic success lately. Los Angeles can't get out of its own way as it has strung together some underwhelming performances. Unfortunately, we're not anticipating improved efforts any time soon.
LA is vastly overachieving relative to its underlying metrics. The Kings' output over their recent stretch is incompatible with their production, implying they are regression candidates. Anze Kopitar and company have been held to eight or fewer High-Danger Chances in six straight, a span in which they've totaled 13 goals at 5-on-5 with an inflated 9.5% shooting percentage.
Limited production is also hurting the Kings' Expected Goals-For standing. LA has been outplayed in three of six, precipitating a slightly above-average 50.9% benchmark across that stretch. That looks even worse when we adjust for opponent, as the Kings have taken on the lowly Anaheim Ducks, San Jose Sharks and Seattle Kraken.
The last time the Kings took to the ice, they had a hard time scoring, dropping a 3-1 decision to the Ducks. A similar fate awaits them over their coming games.
Flames vs. Kings
Betting Pick & Prediction
When these teams met a couple of weeks ago, the Flames left with a decisive 4-2 win after outplaying the Kings at 5-on-5. We're betting on a similar outcome on Thursday night.
It's not reflected in the betting price, but Calgary has superior analytics. With the anticipated regression plaguing the Kings, they could be in for a letdown before the end of the campaign. It might not cost them their playoff spot, but it will cost them on Thursday night.
We're playing the Flames at the current best price, but there may be value in waiting until closer to puck drop, so take anything better than +160. Also, don't be surprised if this one gets sorted out in overtime or a shootout.
Pick: Flames +165 (bet365) | 60-Minute Tie +360 (FanDuel)
